this post was submitted on 02 Sep 2024
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https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 47 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (3 children)

Based on Iran’s focus on the F-35I, the James Martin analysts assumed the likely target point for the Iranian fire would be a cluster of aircraft hangars. The position also serves as a near-central point within the Nevatim base itself.

That offers “a much more valuable target” than just “poking holes in the runway,” Lair said. But none of the Iranian missiles directly hit those hangars.

Assuming Iran targeted the hangars, the James Martin analysts measured the distance between the hangars and the impact zones of the missiles. That gave an average of about 1.2 kilometers (0.75 miles) for the “circular error probable” — a measurement used by experts to determine a weapon’s accuracy based on the radius of a circle that encompasses 50% of where the missiles landed.

what is this shit? (linky to ap) we estimated the target to be hangars and thus the missiles are shit, deeply unserious analysts (unless they are doing shenanigans, in that case carry on rat-salute )

[–] companero@hexbear.net 47 points 2 months ago

I just checked google maps, and each of the impacts appear to be within ~100m of potential targets, if the runway counts.

Iran separately advertised the Emad to potential international buyers as having a 50-meter (164-foot) circle

Hmm 2 * 50... Almost like they specifically chose coordinates to avoid hitting anything important, while proving that they could hit stuff if they wanted to.

I'm not looking forward to WW3, but I have to admit that the catharsis will be immense when the gloves finally come off.

[–] someone@hexbear.net 33 points 2 months ago (3 children)

I have a grand total of zero real world military experience, but wouldn't the runways be the more valuable targets when the enemy is flying NATO-style hangar queens that can't handle unprepared runways? Take out a plane, and that plane can't fly until/unless it's fixed. Take out the runways on an airbase, and no planes can fly until/unless it's fixed.

[–] cctaacc@hexbear.net 61 points 2 months ago

Bombing runways is almost completely useless unless done on a daily basis, since the repairs can be done quickly and cheaper than the cost of whatever ballistic missile they use. Blowing up the airplanes in the hangars incurs an irrecoverable loss to the tune of a hundred million dollars give or take.

But even were Iran or anyone else to hit some expensive F-35 or similar NATO bullshit plane they will never confirm the loss officially or do so reluctantly weeks later; case in point, the whole F-16 debacle currently in Ukraine.

[–] plinky@hexbear.net 35 points 2 months ago

Temporarily yeah, fixing runway is like a week of work. Hitting planes is more permanent, but also more escalatory (you can kill someone, much higher price of plane), iran is doing bare minimum to not get completely disrespected.

Plus if you can hit all runways simultaneously (big if, but israel is small), isntreal is basically grounded (aside from amerikkan carriers), thus it’s kinda humane defanging tactic.

It’s just baffling this shit is published by ap, and kinda scary.