Unpopular Opinion
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Yes but the countries expecting or experiencing population decline are high consumption countries, largely.
That's my point. The correlation already runs the other way. As those countries start to see shrinking populations, they'll also continue to consume greater amounts per capita, offsetting the population decrease.
China and South Korea are starting to shrink. Do we really believe that their pollution and resource consumption are going to go down in the next 10 years?
And it doesn't really matter whether we're talking causation in one direction or another, or a spurious correlation with some other confounding factors. The fact is, the highest consumption populations tend to have the lowest birth rates, and vice versa, so why would we expect dwindling births to reduce consumption?
Well if the goal is the fewest number of humans, all living good lives, with ecological impact low enough to not worsen the planet over time, we should be happy that the humans who are forecasted to not exist are of the variety that are high consumers/polluters.
This is not a eugenics comment. I'm not suggesting anyone is invalid or should be removed, but we are instead discussing births that simply don't happen.
Yes, but what I think he's saying is that so far the deceased birth rate coincides with drastically increased consumption per capita. Therefore the decrease in birthrate may have no to negative short and medium term effect on total consumption/pollution.
Right but our goal should be some hypothetical 100000 people who all live incredible, careless, needless, yet fulfilled lives (number is a joke, pick any you like). But to get there, it's gonna take a while. Generations.
I'd rather focus on raising up the lowest into a tier of stability, health, basics, etc. And rely on the upper group of consumers diminishing.
Wondering about short term gains on something like this is silly.
What you're describing, then, has nothing to do with birth rates. That's what I'm saying in this thread: reduced birth rates won't fix the problem of runaway consumption and emerging scarcity.
Reduce birthrates A LOT (via non eugenic methods, I'm not playing with that), and prefer to remove (again, via absence) the most consumptive.
Give it a few hundred years and baby, you got a stew goin.
I'm saying that you can reduce birthrates a lot and it won't make much of a difference, because you can't go below zero and the rich/high consumption countries are already low.
If your goal is to reduce net consumption, then reduce consumption (or replenish consumed resources through increased production or restoration/replenishment of what is consumed). Preventing births itself won't meaningfully move the needle.
Over a few generations reducing birthday near zero would absolutely love the needle.
I think we generally agree, I'm just focused on a wider time span