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Mastodon will still be the biggest fediverse service. It will remain a niche player in the microblog world, as Bluesky gradually becomes the big player by stealing users from the platform formerly known as Twitter.
The rest of the federverse will (hopefully) coalesce around fewer projects. Development is massively fragmented right now. I'm very curious to see which projects flourish, and which projects die.
I do not expect the federverse to unseat large corporate social media and become home to the masses. And I'm okay with that.
I hate to agree with this but I do. I would love if more people said fuck you to data harvesting and started denying access to everything as best they could; and decentralizing social media would go a long way in that. Unfortunately, too many people have too much faith in corporations