this post was submitted on 01 Oct 2024
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askchapo
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I don't think abortion moves the needle too much this round. The Republicans have been pretty quiet and, while it does drive turnout when it's on the ballot, I think most people are still viewing it as a local issue.
Biden was successful in 2020 because the dems were highly successful at painting him as the safe option. That's not really part of the messaging this time, so I think it's going to be like 2016, where it's a question of what a few key constituencies in a few strategic areas are thinking. Muslims in MI are definitely one, folks affected by the hurricane may be another, some randos in PA that didn't constitute a coherent bloc until now and who therefore were not sampled well in polls might be a third.
The only question mark around the chuds is how motivated they are to turn out because there's zero chance they get flipped, and they tend to be reliable voters who want to see their guy in charge regardless of the presence of an agenda.