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This is what everyone was saying looking at those 100kish Russian soldiers at the Ukrainian border at the beginning of 2022. "They won't do it, that is not enough men".
And who says it is going to be a open escalation? Remember Crimea? Hacking attacks? Russia is all about destabilisation just below the threshold of clear and open aggression. Them stirring up some bullshit in for example Narva will put the west to the test. And I'm sure there will be a lot of voices on our side warning against an open conflict with Russia just because they seized a small border town in a small country.
It's the same as in Ukraine: if Putin has enough reason to believe it might work, he will try it.