this post was submitted on 19 Nov 2024
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[–] _pi@lemmy.ml 7 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (41 children)

There is no known nuclear warhead that exists for the MGM-140 tactical ballistic missile, and the idea that the US would give one to Ukraine, or that Ukraine could develop one is completely insane.

The real issue is that these types of long range missiles can carry a nuclear payload. If Russia detects that a bunch of nuclear capable missiles are flying to Russia then they have to make call on whether it is a genuine nuclear first strike or just a conventional weapons attack.

Only if you're pretending that doctrine is to respond to nuclear attacks with nuclear attacks immediately without any real information. For weapons that Ukraine fields the SOP would literally be the same. The MGM-140 can be shot down by multiple Russian SAM systems. Nuclear warheads don't make nuclear detonations unless they are triggered correctly. This isn't a video game red barrel.

Every missile above a certain size is "nuclear capable". This phrase doesn't mean anything. Any world where your explainer is correct hinges on multiple misunderstandings.

AFAIR NATO countries haven't ever fielded TCMBs with nuclear warheads on mobile land platforms due to the risk. Mobile land-based launch platforms for nuclear TCBMs is typically only fielded by Russia/Post-Soviet countries. NATO typically uses Air/Sea for these types of deployments due to the risks of land based mobile deployment.

Your entire line of reasoning is something that the US can simply accuse Russia of for using the Iskander platform, which it does in Ukraine, because it actually has known nuclear warheads.

Literally FTA

"Aggression by a non-nuclear state with the participation of a nuclear state is considered as a joint attack," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday -- a clear reference to Ukraine and its Western backers.

"It was necessary to bring our principles in line with the current situation," Peskov added, calling the update a "very important" document that should be "studied" abroad.

Russia "has always viewed nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence," he said, adding that they would only be deployed if Russia felt "forced" to respond.

Putin has issued a string of nuclear threats throughout the almost three-year campaign against Ukraine, triggering concern in the West over rhetoric it has slammed as reckless.

The new doctrine also allows Moscow to unleash a nuclear response in the event of a "massive" air attack, even if it only uses conventional weapons.

When the Kremlin first unveiled the proposed changes in September, Peskov called it a "warning" against anybody who was thinking about participating "in an attack on our country by various means, not necessarily nuclear".

Furthermore see Erdogan's response that was highlighted by Russian state media:

https://tass.com/world/1874889

[–] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 6 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (2 children)

AFAIR NATO countries haven't ever fielded TCMBs with nuclear warheads on mobile land platforms due to the risk

There was Pershing Ia and Pershing II which had nuclear warheads, but they are no longer in service. They were stationed in Europe, West Germany in particular had a lot of mobile sites, mounted on MAN M1001 vehicles. Pershing II was a particularly scary missile as it had a MaRV (Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicle) back in the 1980s. It's basically the father of all modern tactical ballistic missiles. No air defence system from that time was intercepting that. Even the most sophisticated modern missile defence systems, such as Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 in Israel, still struggle to intercept MaRVs, as shown by Iran's October 1st retaliatory strike.

The reason we haven't seen this after 1991, and why the US and Russia have not focused much on short, medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles since then, is due to the INF treaty. However, the US withdrew from this treaty during 2018 and 2019.

[–] _pi@lemmy.ml 3 points 8 months ago (1 children)

The reason we haven’t seen this after 1991, and why the US and Russia have not focused much on short, medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles since then, is due to the INF treaty. However, the US withdrew from this treaty during 2018 and 2019.

The reason the INF was even signed is because these are the riskiest platforms to actually field and maintain, the INF still allowed sea and air launched short/intermediate ranged ballistic missiles.

The reason the US pulled out of the INF is because the idiot neocon policy under Trump lead to a statement like, "their test platform has wheels" when referring to Novator 9M729 development, and was used as an excuse for the US to exit the treaty with all allegations unproven.

[–] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 4 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

The reason the INF was even signed is because these are the riskiest platforms to actually field and maintain, the INF still allowed sea and air launched short/intermediate ranged ballistic missiles.

Well yes, no one wants nuclear weapons stationed on their land border. It's an extremely high risk scenario. So both sides at the time could agree to take these weapons out of service. Banning sea launched nuclear weapons would be an impossibility given the existence of submarines, no side would willingly give up their second strike capabilities. And air launched ballistic missiles were not operational as of 1991, the US had only conducted a few experiments and the air launched version of what became the ATACMS programme was scrapped. The Kinzhal only became operational as of 2022. Nuclear air launched cruise missiles were not going to be banned, as that was important for both sides strategic bombers.

Ultimately the treaty was not going to last with only the US and Russia being members, it's gives a superpower like China a huge advantage in this field. Even a country like Iran has developed IRBMS/MRBMs which don't have a direct NATO or Russian counterpart currently in service. There's also the plans around the "NATO missile defense system" that basically killed the deal. If one side builds missile defences, the other side is going to look to construct weapons that can bypass them, to keep the playing field level. Any future treaty would have to ban the deployment or construction of certain advanced missile defence systems to be viable.

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