this post was submitted on 22 Nov 2024
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That's the whole problem here. If Russia does nothing then NATO will say it was a bluff and continue to escalate. If Russia retaliates then they frame it as Russia escalating and NATO having to stand firm in face of nuclear blackmail and whatever. So, regardless of how Russia responds there's almost guaranteed to be more escalation.
That's the thing, Russia cannot de-escalate unilaterally. De-escalation requires both sides to want it. We know that neither NATO nor the current Ukrainian leadership want peace. They want everything else, no matter how unrealistic or unreasonable but they don't want peace. That doesn't give Russia much room. It's options are to capitulate or continue matching the escalatory moves.
Exactly, and this means Russia has to walk a tightrope of avoiding WW3 while still achieving its objectives through force.