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I had always heard Navy recruitment skyrocketed, but your comment made me curious, so I looked at the Defense Manpower Data Center numbers for the years surrounding Top Gun's release in May of '86 and...
In September of '86 the Navy's manpower increase was nearly double that of the year before or after (10k versus 6k). Meanwhile the air force had a more moderate increase and then numbers fell in '87.
I think the overall gains are probably overstated, but there were definite spikes in the Navy E-1 and O-1 numbers following Top Gun, a trend not seen in the Air Force numbers.
Source: https://dwp.dmdc.osd.mil/dwp/app/dod-data-reports/workforce-reports
Manpower is misleading because the manpower for each branch is determined every year based on ongoing missions, requirements, and a bunch of other minute details. A jump in manpower doesn't mean we got more recruits applying that year, just that we approved a certain level of manpower and filled those positions.
I was talking about recruitment; the people actually showing up at recruiter's offices trying to join the service. The year that Top Gun and its sequel came to theaters, our Air Force recruiters met their recruitment quotas in a heartbeat. Meanwhile, I'm told, the Navy recruitment was mostly business as usual.
Maybe if the Navy's manpower was much higher that year, they struggled to meet their annual quotas while the Air Force quickly filled up, and that's why it seems like the Air Force was more popular that year.
You're right that manpower depends on a number of factors, and global tensions were pretty high in the Navy of the mid-80s, so those increases could be entirely attributable to other more mundane reasons.
I can only find mentions of "+500%" Navy recruitment during that time, and stories of Navy recruiters setting up booths at movie theaters, so it seems like even the official story is probably somewhat sensationalized. I did find mentions of an increase in the total number of high school graduates entering the Navy, percentage wise. From sub-85% in 1985 to more than 90% in '86, so that could speak to the overall volume of recruits available during that time, but that might be drawing the wrong conclusions.
I didn't find any indication of similar things in the Air Force. As far as I can tell things were pretty steady. Either way, it doesn't really seem to follow that people would watch a movie about Navy pilots and then decide to hit up the AF recruiter.