this post was submitted on 16 Mar 2025
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Summary

A massive Ukrainian drone strike targeted Russian oil refineries and infrastructure, including Moscow’s largest refinery, which supplies 50% of the city’s fuel.

The attack also hit the Druzhba pipeline control station, halting Russian oil exports to Hungary. With over 337 drones striking multiple regions, the operation exploited gaps in Russia’s air defenses.

Hungary, heavily reliant on Russian energy, called the pipeline attack a threat to its sovereignty.

Analysts suggest continued strikes could pressure Russia’s economy and energy dominance, potentially influencing ceasefire negotiations.

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[–] Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Not necessarily. But it does habe about the same amount if trouble. Remember that the Russia's manpower consumption is extremely high, so they need to recruit a lot more than Ukraine in order to.keep their army from shrinking in manpower.

[–] alkbch@lemmy.ml 1 points 2 days ago (1 children)

No, while Russia may have lost more soldiers than Ukraine overall, Russia has lost a lot less soldiers per capita than Ukraine.

[–] Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 days ago (1 children)

~300000 vs. ~70000. 140 million vs 40 million.

=

0,0021 deaths per inhabitant vs 0,0018 deaths per inhabitant.

In military losses including wounded the Russia's situation is better in comparison to population, if.you look at raw numbers: about twice as many losses, but 3½ times the population. But it is always much easier for the defender to recruit soldiers than it is for the aggressor, so you'd need to add a coefficient for that. All in all, these numbers are in the same ballpark. They should not be able to make a huge difference, because both are decreasing at roughly comparable rates.

And I repeat: because of the Russia's exceptionally cruel behaviour in the temporarily occupied regions, the Ukrainians are likely to find much more manpower if manpower shortage becomes acute enough for the Russia to start advancing.

I don't think either side is going to win or lose the war because of manpower shortages.

[–] alkbch@lemmy.ml 0 points 2 days ago (1 children)

No, Ukrainians are not more likely to join the war efforts, it has been pretty clearly demonstrated by the difficulties of the Ukrainian army to hire more soldiers.

As Russia keeps advancing, it will further damage the moral of the Ukrainians. Ukraine can not win a war of attrition against Russia.

[–] Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz 1 points 1 day ago (1 children)

What do you mean with this "As Russia keeps advancing"? It has not advanced since February 2022. The conversation is a bit difficult when the foundations of the conversation are so uneven. You talk about "Russia advancing", and to my knowledge, that has not happened. Could you please elaborate?

[–] alkbch@lemmy.ml 0 points 1 day ago (1 children)

What do you mean it has not advanced since February 2022? That's quite a wild statement. Just look at how many regions have been captured by Russia last year and this year alone.

[–] Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

During the year 2024 the Russia managed to conquer 0.7 % of Ukraine's total land area. Less than a percent.

The areas conquered are indeed many, but that's just because they count places like Niu York and Progress. Those have such weird names because they are old kolkhozes – very big farms. Soviet farms had a lot of workers, and therefore houses, but it is still about conquering a kolkhoz.

Conquering 0.7 % of country's territory is not "advancing". The Russia keeps advertising its 100 metre successes as advancing, and for some weird reason the western media reports about those as advances.

But it is still 0.7 %. A negligible area.

[–] alkbch@lemmy.ml 1 points 1 day ago (1 children)

That’s advancing and is not negligible.

[–] Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

It's quite a big claim that capturing 0.7 percent of a country is in any way significant.

I am not aware of any mechanic that would cause such a small change of territory control to have any noteworthy effect on a war's result. If the 0.7 % are indeed significant, how?