this post was submitted on 13 Apr 2025
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Party Name Seats (Current) Seats Change Percentage (Current) Percentage Change Majority Probability Minority Probability
Liberal 183 +23 43.6% +11% 70.5% 15.7%
Conservative 138 +19 43.2% +9.5% 5.7% 8.1%
Bloc 14 -18 3.5% -4.1% 0% 0%
New Democrat 6 -19 6.2% -11.6% N/A N/A
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[–] Sunshine@lemmy.ca 10 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Could it be from the liberal operatives planting story?

[–] cyborganism@lemmy.ca 7 points 1 week ago (3 children)

Like what?

(I'm really just curious, not challenging you or anything.)

[–] n2burns@lemmy.ca 12 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (3 children)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-oppo-csfn-1.7509217

Though is far too early for any backlash to show up in polls.

EDIT a word

[–] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca 11 points 1 week ago

On Friday night, in two Ottawa bars, campaign workers shared how the party was behind this move — two Liberal Party staffers attended the conference intended for conservatives and placed these buttons in areas where attendees would find them.

At the pub D'Arcy McGee's near Parliament Hill, a number of Liberal war room staffers met for drinks on the far side of the bar. This journalist joined one of them for a quick conversation, but heard another staffer, who had previously identified himself as being involved in opposition research, describing how he and a colleague planted the buttons.

🤦 🤦‍♀️🤦‍♂️

But yeah, the story is from April 13th so it's unlikely to be reflected in the polls. Plus given the attitudes at the moment, I doubt people who'd vote Lib would decide not to vote Lib based on this.

[–] cyborganism@lemmy.ca 3 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Thanks. I wasn't aware of that.

Would that really shift the polls by that much though?

[–] n2burns@lemmy.ca 2 points 1 week ago

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Personally, I don't think it'll have a large impact, but I honestly don't know.

[–] philbgarner@lemmy.ca 2 points 1 week ago

I believe this won't hurt as much as people assume. It might actually break through conservative users' media bubble a little bit because their algorithm is going to push this story down their throats as rage-bait but it also brings to their attention the real divide in the Conservative party currently. Something that might not have reached their eyes otherwise.

It's probably a dumb mistake by overly eager staffers, but I can't shake the feeling that this is somewhat calculated.

[–] Sunshine@lemmy.ca 7 points 1 week ago (1 children)

They did a dirty trick to make the cons look worse. CBC has reported on it.

[–] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca 11 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

And apparently yapped about it in a pub... amateur hour. 🤡

I can just imagine PP's wailing about this.

[–] niketunic@lemmy.world 4 points 1 week ago