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We did the math on AI’s energy footprint. Here’s the story you haven’t heard.
(www.technologyreview.com)
this post was submitted on 21 May 2025
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Historically AI always got much better. Usually after the field collapsed in an AI winter and several years went by in search for a new technique to then repeat the hype cycle. Tech bros want it to get better without that winter stage though.
That's part of why they installed Donald Trump as the dictator of the United States. The other is the network states.
AI usually got better when people realized it wasn't going to do all it was hyped up for but was useful for a certain set of tasks.
Then it turned from world-changing hotness to super boring tech your washing machine uses to fine-tune its washing program.
Like the cliché goes: when it works, we don't call it AI anymore.
The smart move is never calling it "AI" in the first place.
Unless you're in comp sci, and AI is a field, not a marketing term. And in that case everyone already knows that's not "it".
The major thing that killed 1960s/70s AI was the Vietnam War. MIT's CSAIL was funded heavily by DARPA. When public opinion turned against Vietnam and Congress started shutting off funding, DARPA wasn't putting money into CSAIL anymore. Congress didn't create an alternative funding path, so the whole thing dried up.
That lab basically created computing as we know it today. It bore fruit, and many companies owe their success to it. There were plenty of promising lines of research still going on.
I wish there was an alternate history forum or novel that explores this scenario.
Pretty sure "AI" didn't exist in the 60s/70s either.
The perceptron was created in 1957 and a physical model was built a year later
Yes, it did. Most of the basic research came from there. The first section of the book "Hackers" by Steven Levy is a good intro.
The spice must flow
The issue this time around is infrastructure. The current AI Summer depends on massive datacenters with equally massive electrical needs. If companies can't monetize that enough, they'll pull the plug and none of this will be available to general public anymore.
This system can go backwards. Yes, the R&D will still be there after the AI Winter cycle hits, but none of the infrastructure.
We'll still have models like deepseek, and (hopefully) discount used server hardware
Each winter marks the beginning and end of a generation of AI. We are now seeing more progress and as long as there is no technical limit it seems that its progress will not be interrupted.
What progress are we seeing?
In what area of AI? Image generation is increasing in leaps and bounds. Video generation even more so. Image reconstruction for games (DLSS, XeSS, FSR) is having generational improvements almost every year. AI chatbots are getting much much smarter seemingly every month.
What’s one main application of AI that hasn’t improved?
Which chatbots are getting smarter?
I know AI has potential, but specifically LLMs (which most people mean when talking about AI) seem to have hit their technological limits.
Copilot, ChatGPT, pretty much all of them.
Smarter how? Synthetic benchmarks?
Because I've heard the opposite from users and bloggers.
So you want me to provide some evidence that it's getting smarter, but you can't provide any that it's getting worse other than anecdotal evidence?
What evidence would you accept?
Any proof that we have moved past the current architecture.
What does "architecture" mean in this scenario?
Any significant shift in the model, or a complete restructuralization of the approach.
As it is, it won't grow anywhere.
So you’ve got acres to all this stuffs source code and know what has and hasn’t changed with every update?
No, if there was any major breakthrough, it would be advertised everywhere.
Advanced Reasoning models came out like 4 months ago lol
Advanced reasoning? Having LLM talk to itself?
Yes, which has improved some tasks measurably. ~20% improvement on programming tasks, as a practical example. It has also improved tool use and agentic tasks, allowing the llm to plan ahead and adjust it's initial approach based on later parts.
Having the llm talk through the tasks allows it to improve or fix bad decisions taken early based on new realizations on later stages. Sort of like when a human thinks through how to do something.
Lul yes but no, but they are clearly better at many types of tasks.
For example? Citations?
Pretty sure these "tasks" are meaningless metrics made up by pseudo-scientific grifters.
AlphaFold 3 which can help in the prediction of some proteins. Although it has some limitations, it cannot be used in all cases, only in what it can perform without any problem.
Small bits of code, language related tasks, basic context understanding, not metrics I have literally measured simply noticed has improved compared to non reasoning models in my homelab testing. 🤷♂️
They've been a boon for medical diagnoses as well, I believe.
Has anyone made AI powered accounting software yet? I'd love to tell my computer 'Here's all my financial information in a big heap. Do my taxes.' The numbers and tax laws are all known things. It shouldn't be hard.
Any strictly rule-based system, like accounting and taxes, is a job for traditional software, not AI. Particularly when the laws change every year.
Once it has the information in a recognisable format. Reading and recognising random receipts, bank statements, payment slips, and whatever and sorting it into a coherent format is what I'm trying to avoid.
I see. So AI for gathering the information to put into the accounting/tax software?
That's a more reasonable ask, but I wouldn't personally trust AI with that. I've done something similar in games where I take a picture of something on screen and ask AI to collect all the information from many similar pictures into a table. It's definitely good enough for gaming, but it makes mistakes often enough I wouldn't sign my name attesting to the truth of anything it produced, you know?
Fair point, but i feel like that's something that's technologically solvable, and this is dealing only with text, a lot of which is already digital, just in multiple formats, and all easily checkable against the final figures if anyone so desires.
As a random aside, I saw a clip recently where someone had asked an 'AI' model to reproduce a photo with zero changes one hundred times. There were more than zero changes.
Surprisingly, the mistakes ChatGPT made weren't related to picture processing. Every time I've sent a picture, it has flawlessly analyzed the text (even if it's a screenshot of a massive Linux log or a screenshot with multiple windows / arbitrary text placement). The problems were more like the markdown table I created would not be reproduced perfectly with the new changes/additions. It's pretty reliable early on, but either as the chat gets longer or the table does, fidelity can be lost. Not very often, but it does happen.
Just to clarify. But I find as long as you're paying close attention and can catch mistakes or verify the output, AI does make such tasks much less tedious.
NVL72 will be enormously impactful on high end performance.
Historically "AI" still doesn't exist.
Technically even 1950s computer chess is classified as AI.