this post was submitted on 30 May 2025
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To advertise that they can? In return what would be the purpose to hide it?
They do seem to make their advancements at least somewhat public, e.g. with their recent progress with a EUV light source.
I am probably on the pessimistic side and you maybe on the optimistic, so the reality will likely end up being somewhere in between (but only time will tell).
Well it also was developed in the west by a large amount of talent and resources and still took a lot of time. But you are absolutely right that their hand is being forced.
Restricting exports like this imo was a huge mistake, imo especially in regard to duv. In the end it might have achieved some damage in the short/medium term, but that wasn't anything the us could capitalize on and it also directly hurt ASMLs profits (meaning less resources to advance). And regardless how the timeline ends up looking on the end (be it closer to your or my prediction), physics are the same everywhere so that can't be restricted and they will eventually be able to figure it out.
To avoid further retaliations from USA that might prevent their progress.
And to not disclose industry secrets.
True, I'm an optimist on their behalf, because China has done such impressive progress already, but I also know this is way harder than sending a man to the moon.
I agree 100% about restricting the tech is a huge mistake, and yes physics are indeed the same everywhere.
Hopefully when China figures it out, consumers everywhere will benefit. The Political implications however, is an open question.