this post was submitted on 03 Jul 2025
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Pretty sure europe is actually not gonna get warmer forever. Once the AMOC collapses Europes gonna freeze.
A hypothesis I have is that the world gets warmer, China will be somewhat of a safe haven/last refuge, for somewhat "normal" climate/weather/daily life.
Do you agree with that or have any thoughts?
I've read that compared to the rest of the world, China overall, but especially Chengdu/Sichuan, and eastern China somewhat as well, will remain much comparatively cooler and more temperate as the average global temperature rises, and that China's natural environment and geography will somewhat or moderately temper the potential temperature increase, and delay the number and severity of extreme weather events in China.
China is not immune to climate change. They have Typhoons along their southern coast to worry about, and will have to deal with food shortages like anyone else. I do think they have a path forward, but it wouldnt be easy. In an extreme climate change scenario China would basically have to use their High Speed Rail network to move all the fertile soil from southern China up into Manchuria, and Siberia. There is water in Sibera they could use, and if they work with Russia, and Mongolia they could turn a lot of that land into farmland once temps increase there. It would be a massive undertaking though. Like the biggest terraforming project in human history. And it would take years.
Southern China will still get too hot, many cities will have flooding issues, storms will get worse, current farmland will become less productive, the Gobi desert will expand, etc. How China does will come down to planning, and infrastucture. Not luck of the draw. That's the case everywhere. While yes there are regions where climate change will be worse overall EVERYWHERE will face severe challenges. Even the most stable regions.
China like most large countries will have regions that do decently well, and regions that suffer more. The US is no different. It's southwest is doomed, but the great lakes are in a pretty good position. China's big issue is food. They have a lot of mouths to feed, and as farmland becomes less productive food will be scarce. They're gonna have to put a lot of resources towards creating new farmland.
I'm aware that life is likely going to suck everywhere, and that China isn't immune to climate change. I appreciate your thoughtful answer.
The crux of my question though, is in your opinion, do you think that Chengdu will be a comparatively "safe" zone, at least for a while, due to the natural geography, shit-ton of nearby agriculture, very fertile soil, more temperate climate?
Honestly i would have to look a research for the specific area in detail. Every area has so many different factors that come into play it becomes very hard to predict without a ton of research. China has probably done the research, but i wouldn't be sure where to look for it.
I've looked at temperature/climate/meteorological maps, and done alot of reading of scientific papers, and that's how I came to my conclusion.
Then you know more about it then i do. So I'd trust your judgement on it over my own. I only know about the larger regions in general not specific areas like that.