this post was submitted on 07 Jul 2025
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Image is of the Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline, which transports gas from Russia to China. This isn't an oil pipeline (such as the ESPO) but I thought it looked cool. Source here.


Trump has recently proposed a 500% tariff on goods from countries that trade with Russia, including India and China (who buy ~70% of Russia's oil output), as well as a 10% additional tariff on goods from countries that "align themselves with BRICS." Considering that China is the largest trading partner of most of the countries on the planet at this point, and India and Brazil are reasonably strong regional players, I'm not sure what exactly "alignment" means, but it could be pretty bad.

Sanctions and tariffs on Russian products have been difficult to achieve in practice. It's easy to write an order to sanction Russia, but much harder to actually enforce these sorts of things because of, for example, the Russian shadow oil fleet, or countries like Kazakhstan acting as covert middlemen (well, as covert as a very sudden oil export boom can be).

Considering that China was pretty soundly victorious last time around, I'm cautiously optimistic, especially because China and India just outright cutting off their supply of energy and fuel would be catastrophic to them (and if Iran and Israel go to war again any time in the near future, it'll only be more disastrous). Barring China and India kowtowing to Trump and copying Europe vis-a-vis Nordstream 2 (which isn't impossible, I suppose), the question is whether China and India will appear to accede to these commands while secretly continuing trade with Russia through middlemen, or if they will be more defiant in the face of American pressure.


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[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 41 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (14 children)

Egypt confirms acquisition of Chinese HQ-9B long-range air defence system Military Africa

Egypt has officially confirmed its deployment of the Chinese HQ-9B long-range air defence system, a move that marks a notable enhancement of its military capabilities and reflects a growing partnership with Beijing. This confirmation came from retired Major General Samir Farag, a former high-ranking official in the Egyptian Armed Forces, during an interview on Sada El-Balad TV. Farag revealed that Egypt’s arsenal includes various modern defence systems, with the HQ-9B—a system comparable to Russia’s S-400—being a key component. This disclosure, reported by Israeli media outlet nziv, reveals Egypt’s strategic shift toward diversifying its arms suppliers and strengthening its air defence network. The HQ-9B’s advanced capabilities, including its ability to engage a wide array of aerial threats, position Egypt to better address regional security challenges while navigating complex geopolitical dynamics.

Egypt’s decision to acquire the HQ-9B stems from a combination of strategic, economic, and political factors. Frustrated by Western restrictions on arms sales, Cairo has turned to China for advanced systems that come without the political constraints often imposed by the United States and European nations. For instance, Egypt’s F-16 fleet, supplied by the U.S., is equipped with outdated AIM-7 Sparrow missiles, while France has withheld long-range MICA missiles for its Rafale jets. In contrast, China’s export terms are more flexible, offering Egypt access to cutting-edge technology without restrictive end-user agreements. The HQ-9B’s cost-effectiveness also makes it an attractive alternative to pricier Western systems like the U.S.-made Patriot PAC-3, which carries both a higher price tag and political strings. Compared to Russia’s S-400, the HQ-9B provides similar capabilities at a lower cost, though it lacks the same combat-tested pedigree.

The timing of this acquisition is tied to Egypt’s evolving security concerns. Tensions with Israel over its actions in Gaza, along with Turkey’s support for Islamist groups in Syria and Libya, pose direct threats to Cairo’s interests. The Western-backed assault on Libya in 2011, with Turkish involvement, left a lasting impression on Egyptian leadership, reinforcing the need for independent aerial warfare capabilities. Egypt’s air force, while sizable, remains constrained by its reliance on Western suppliers, who have been reluctant to provide the most advanced munitions. The HQ-9B, alongside other Chinese systems like the Wing Loong-1D drones and reported interest in J-31 stealth fighters, signals a deliberate pivot toward Beijing as a defence partner. This shift not only enhances Egypt’s deterrence capabilities but also strengthens its bargaining power with Western allies, who may now feel pressure to loosen restrictions on arms sales.

The HQ-9B’s deployment in Egypt also has broader implications for the Middle East’s balance of power. Israel, which maintains a qualitative military edge in the region, must now account for Egypt’s bolstered air defences. The system’s ability to detect stealth aircraft and intercept precision-guided munitions complicates Israel’s operational planning, particularly in scenarios involving strikes on Egyptian targets. Turkey, another regional rival, could face similar challenges if tensions escalate, as the HQ-9B extends Egypt’s defensive reach. Beyond Egypt, China’s growing role as an arms supplier challenges the dominance of Western and Russian systems in the Middle East. Countries like Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan have already acquired the HQ-9B, drawn by its affordability and China’s willingness to transfer technology without political preconditions. Egypt’s procurement could inspire other nations to follow suit, further eroding the West’s influence in the region’s defence markets.

This is the end of Russian military industrial complex. The India-Pakistan conflict truly marked the turn of the tide and the ascendence of Chinese military technology displacing those of Russia’s among Global South countries.

I predict Russia’s economy will continue to worsen as it loses global market in military export, one of the few things Russia is actually good at and a major source of foreign income, and will in turn stifle investments in research and development over the longer term, ultimately leading to the demise of its status as a global leader in military technology.

PS. Europe’s as well, no doubt.

[–] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 27 points 1 day ago (10 children)

I'm a bit surprised China would sell to Egypt - isn't Egypt solidly in the Western camp wrt military funding and the Israel project? Selling them advanced anti-air seems like they might as well just put it on display for American arms manufacturers in Virginia

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 28 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (4 children)

I’m not going to comment on the national security aspect nor am I qualified to do so, but from an economic perspective it makes sense if you understand what’s going on in China’s economy these days.

I’m not going to repeat many things I already said but surely you know that government finances aren’t doing so well since Covid, tax revenues actually decreased the last financial year and since China adheres to IMF guidelines, it is afraid of running large deficits and has to find ways to make up for the budgetary gap.

With consumption remaining dampened and failed to drive up corporate profits and return of investments (i.e. failing to drive wage growth for workers), and the expensive outstanding interest and debt servicing for many corporations and local governments, turning toward militarization helps alleviate two critical problems at the same time:

  1. it softens the impact of economic downturn by driving investment into another sector
  2. it alleviates the high youth unemployment problem that currently exists

It is not a coincidence that I also noticed an increase in military recruitment ads in China. In fact, this is not even particular to China. The world is turning towards militarization as the global economic instability is amplified further under Trump’s erratic policies. The US, Europe and many other countries are also investing heavily into militarization.

The world is heading back to the 1930s once more with intense militarization that increases the risk of a global conflict, if not another world war. Lenin already commented on this a hundred years ago as soon as WWI ended.

[–] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 26 points 1 day ago (1 children)

It is not a coincidence that I also noticed an increase in military recruitment ads in China. In fact, this is not even particular to China. The world is turning towards militarization as the global economic instability is amplified further under Trump’s erratic policies. The US, Europe and many other countries are also investing heavily into militarization.

I mean, this needs to happen if China is serious about dethroning the US or even just fending itself against US machinations. All anti-imperialist and counter-hegemonic countries need to militarize themselves (and nuke up if able) for the coming storm. The US will not give up the throne without a fight.

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 25 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

No disagreement there. We’re seeing precious resources being funneled into boosting defenses instead of creating robust safety nets for the society that improves living standards.

The empire does what it does best at creating chaos and regional instability, which amplifies the risk of a war and putting everyone involved under intense pressure, and the fallout of which will create new opportunities for multinational capital to harvest. If this is the strategic goal of the empire, it appears to be working.

[–] CarmineCatboy2@hexbear.net 17 points 1 day ago

Do you think the government might see military recruitment as one solution to drive down youth unemployment? Down here we don't even hide the fact that the military is a mass jobs programme, and in the US its the same thing.

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