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I was pretty much with you until you got to foreign powers invading. Seems unlikely. At worst, we’d end up with the two strongest armies on earth (both American) fighting each other. I can’t think of another country on earth who would think it worth it to cross an ocean and occupy the territory. If he have a civil war, there’s a good chance China will try and take Taiwan, but I don’t see California, or even Hawaii, as worth invading in terms of RoI, economic or political.
You assume the locals wouldn't welcome a foreign power lending their military might. You think Maine's local military strength would be enough to fend off the Massachusetts ~~Liberal~~ Liberation Army?
With no central government America's states would become clusters of alliances and those that did not wish to join may have few options.
I'm imagining Canada and Mexico invading the US to carve out pieces in the chaos...