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Especially polls a year early.
Particularly when people are upset at Biden for Israel stuffs… the reality is, none of the progressives that support Palestine will ever support a republican
(and let’s be honest, trump probably would have had troops on the ground going into combat in Gaza too. Biden’s response is more moderate than that brand of Republicanism.)
And a lot of the people who, right now, are saying "we'll vote third party" or "we just won't vote" will change their tune if it comes to November and it's a close Biden vs Trump.
This isn't to say that Biden should take these votes for granted, of course. (Hillary made the fatal mistake of taking votes for granted.) However, it's a common occurrence for people to refuse to back one party's candidate a year out and then come back into the fold near election day. The Republicans will likely have a similar occurrence with people refusing to vote for Trump, but then deciding to do so in November 2024.