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this post was submitted on 09 Nov 2023
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Pro-Tip - Nobody serious will primary him.
The history of primarying a sitting President is that if you do the damage, you won't win, but the President will fail in the General.
How many times has that happened?
Once with Carter?
And wasn't that the moderate establishment intentionally kneecapping his second term because if a Republican won they could say it was because Carter was too progressive and the Dem party needed to be more conservative? But if Carter got a second term, progressives would keep winning primaries?
I can't think of another time an incumbent Dem president was primaried.
But I bet the next time it happens is after the first term of a progressive president. Suddenly party leadership will decide we deserve a say in their private event where they don't have to respect the results.
Johnson was primaried, did poorly in VT and withdrew his nomination. Nominee lost to Nixon.
Ford was primaried, lost to Carter.
Carter was primaried, lost to Reagan.
H.W. Bush was primaried, lost to Clinton, but was also fighting Perot.
So basically every time it's happened in recent times.
Guess there was few more.
This article should help you:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/joe-biden-2024-primary_n_6503225de4b0800d579d8f64
Tldr:
Saying primary challengers make incumbents lose is like saying getting a warning for speeding makes someone more likely to get a speeding ticket
Driving over the speed limit makes both more likely.
So in addition to my point about Carter, and this shouldn't need to be said, but if a president is so bad that they have to fight a tough primary as an incumbent, they're probably not going to win their general.
An easy fix is to normalize a primary. Strong incumbents get a second go, and we're not running an incumbent no one likes in the general if they lose
I think there were legit weaknesses in Johnson, Ford, and Carter.
Johnson because of Vietnam of course. Ford because he pardoned Nixon, and Carter due to the hostage crisis.
Bush was more hurt by Perot than the primary. Buchanan got all pissy over the "read my lips, no new taxes" thing.
If Biden foregoes a run (he won't) and named an heir, we'd be in a better place than described. But it cannot look like Hillary Clinton on the way to a coronation. We lost that one.
Yup, that's what I'm aftraid they're setting up for '28 and Harris - "Her Turn 2.0".