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Israel is not going to be a winning issue in terms of poll numbers.
Every issue is a winning (or losing) issue in presidential elections. There's far too many factors to assume any one thing can't sway the tide.
Hillary made that mistake in 2016.
No, my point is that Biden will lose more voters than he gains on Israel if he changes course. Most of the US is still overwhelmingly pro-Israel despite the genocide on display.
I absolutely think he should drop Israel like a hot potato, but not for domestic strategic reasons. It'll damage his poll numbers, not help them.
I don't think so? Republicans won't vote for him either way, and among Democrats support for Palestine has already overtaken support for Israel AFAIK. Biden's current stance is losing him young voters like crazy.
Compare support for continued Israeli aid, not support for Palestine. Lots of people claim support for Palestine, yet support continued aid to Israel. If you have something to the contrary, unironically, I'd love to see it. It'd be a rare bright light in these dark times.
As a young voter, we generally don't turn out in the requisite numbers.
Oh I see.
It's not exactly what you're looking for, but there.
In late November.
In late December.
Yes, which is why Trump won in 2016. And change in that trend is how Biden won in 2020. Which is why if Biden can't secure those votes he'll lose in 2024. It could be a lose-lose situation, but from that perspective it seems like Biden is digging his own grave.
Like, don't get me wrong, I would love if public sentiment turns against the war in Israel, but right now, it's just... not.
I rather think this issue is a lose-lose situation in terms of losing voters. Which is one of the reasons I think it's even more important that Biden take steps away from support of Israel - if you're gonna lose voters either way, might as well make the decision that is both moral and strategically better for America.
And yet, we're blamed for HRC losing. So which is it?
I mean, for HRC's loss the margin was razor-thin, but realistically it was due to her ignoring several states in favor of running up the margins in Cali to make her eventual win look more 'legitimate'.
Huzzah electoral college. /s
That has nothing to do with what I asked.
I... don't really know what answer you're looking for. As I said, I'm not blaming young people for HRC's loss, but her own strategic choices.
I believe the electoral college is blamed for HRC losing. Sure, it wasn't the only factor, but it's a pretty big deal that you can win the popular vote and still lose the election.
Plenty of people blame progressives, leftists and young people as well. Then they turn around and act like they don't need us when they pick procorporate trash candidates in the primaries.
Can't have it both ways.
Okay yeah but if we sit these Democrats down and explain to them the threat of an Israel Iran war, they will see how assinine of an idea pulling support for Israel would be.
And if Trump gets elected because those youngsters don't vote... I guess they'll learn the hard way that elections have consequences. How insignificant the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will seem if Trump becomes the first dictator in US history.
Make better choices in the primary Boomer. Stop electing procorporate trash candidates.
It would have been a game-changing political realignment if Bernie had won the primary instead of Hilary. He could have beat Trump in 2016, soaking up a lot of the populist and working class vote in the Rust Belt, and the trajectory of US politics would have been very different.
Alas, that didn't happen and a lot of left-leaning people stayed home rather than vote for Hilary. This is a longstanding problem in the Democratic party. Right-wingers always go out and vote Republican, no matter the candidate. Whereas, the left is fickle. Hilary may have been a typical corpo politician, but she was still better than Trump. Even if all she did was make some some incremental progress on public health care and appointed some reasonable SC judges, the US would be a better place right now. Instead, the whole world is facing the possibility of a Trump dictatorship.
Centrists are just going to have to accept that they can't get everything they want at all times, even if it means they don't get to support genocide anymore.
If they're mad because Biden stops supporting genocide, it's because they're russian troll children astroturfer shill bots who don't know how anything works and want Trump to win. Pro-genocide centrist Democrats need to stop being such purity ponies. They need to grow up, shut up, and vote blue no matter who. After all, voting is a chess move, not a love letter.
Sauce for the goose.
There may be many factors but to just throw your hands up and say every issue is equally important is just plain foolish.
It's a matter of what factors get activated enough for it to be a leading one. If Noone was talking about the border and instead the discussion would be about something else.. the "something else" would be a major factor, not the border. Maga extremists are pushing the border narrative hard and pivot to it each appearance they have. Hence its an important issue.. in what snippets I see flying past.. its border security and finances on one side.. Trump lawsuits and Ukraine on the other. Israel comes up less frequently.
The media and public debate play a big role in what factors get activated for it to be decisive.