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this post was submitted on 25 Jan 2024
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This is basically what happened at the beginning of the civil war except the south had much better terms, and the confederates decided to attack a US army base because they're assholes and that's what assholes do. They would absolutely do the same again.
The power dynamic has shifted so much that it would be a 1000x speedrun if they did it again.
And honestly? Let them. Maybe we can do reconstruction properly this time.
The US civil war isn't what civil wars look like in the modern context. There was a boarder and most of the North was safe. That's not what modern civil wars look like. They look like Serbia.
You have to go to work and on your way to work there's someone who's been sniping people for months. The cops won't do anything because "let's go Brandon" or some shit, the mayor no longer has control over the police, and you still have to go to work because you still have to pay for food. So you duck and weave between cars with rotting drivers to get in to your office and you hope you don't get killed today.
Modern civil wars have no borders. They look like mass shootings, car attacks, snipers, bombings, and other random terrorism. Or they look like the Syrian civil war, with 30 different groups all fighting each other aligning with each other sometimes and fighting others, for decades, sometimes aligned with the government and sometimes against it.
The key thing about Texas is that they have a ton of oil. Even assuming a normal war, the US military lives off oil. If it was quick they could probably do it without dipping in to strategic reserves, but what would happen to the oil infrastructure at the start of the war? Damaging that supply could impact the US ability to wage war, so that's not a risk they're going to take.
If anything comes of this beyond Republicans using it to pump up their base, I'll be surprised.
I mean a right wing group opened fire on a electric substation that was barely over a year ago, and we kinda just moved on. We are already somehow in the slow burn of a civil war and there has been several incidents stopped before more destruction could be done.
A modern civil war in America looks like what is happening currently in America. We just don't have a lot of big flashy things happening.
You know other than the record shattering mass murders that occurs at schools and other public places.
Could it get worse? Absolutely. Will it? Who knows. Maybe we do go back to lining up on the borders and shooting each other too.
Right, they opened fire on a couple of substations and no one got hurt.
School shootings are bad but affect a very tiny percentage of the population, really.
It would absolutely get way, way, way worse, and just like what the other person said.
They look like Serbia if you're not a superpower. Rest assured leadership would get hit with drone strikes simultaneously and the war likely wouldn't even start.
The only way a civil war in this country stands a chance is if it's by surprise and given that these people can't it won't shut the fuck up that send unlikely.
There are no leaders. It's just a campaign of stochastic terrorism until everything collapses.
Doesn't matter if they actually lead or if they're figureheads, seeing them rapidly disassembled is the main point.
No, they're doing it now. This is what it looks like to carry out a war by stochastic terrorism. They just keep saying the conspiracy theory shit and doing these stunts and saying, "Our people just need to take matters in to their own hands!" And people carry out random attacks against things with playable deniability that they're leading it.
No one is drone striking Tucker Carlson, and they won't, no matter how many people he kills, how many synagogue or mosque attacks he's responsible for, because he can always just say, "oh, free speech. I didn't plan that. It's just a coincidence that every time there's a mass shootings the person follows my Twitter."
Read up on the Rwandan genocide. This is what they did. They ramped up dehumanizing rehetoric until people hacked their neighbors apart with machetes and locked buildings full of people and set them on fire. It was normal people carrying out the atrocities, but there was enough of a direct connection to end up in the international criminal court. We're in the early stages of the same type of conflict, except we have more guns here.
There's no one to drone strike because every time this happens it's "another lone wolf."