this post was submitted on 13 Feb 2024
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That's an isolated ABC poll, not an indication of national sentiment. More accurately 45% of people who responded to a random American Broadcasting Company poll are fucking stupid, malicious, or both.
I have a related degree. Sorry, but no. There's a high probability it's within a few percentage points of that number.
This isn't an ABC poll. It's a page on ABC's website which tracks polls published by polling companies.
The 45% is from a polling company with a sufficiently large sample size. This isn't just one isolated poll. You can keep scrolling, and you'll see similar figures from multiple polling companies. The chance that a hundred polls are all wrong, is very low.
You may have heard of YouGov, a UK based polling company with a good reputation. As you can see they have a poll they published last week which has Trump at 46% favourable. If you click on yougov it'll link you to the full poll data, so you can read about their methodology, and how they weighted things so that the sample is as representative as possible.
And yes, the good pollsters weigh the data so it better reflects the population. No, they don't only phone old people anymore. Those days are largely gone, outside the occasional partisan poll.
Well if it's an actual accurate picture of America's sentiment then that's very disturbing.
It is.
Given Trump's remarks about NATO and Putin's remarks about the Baltics, it's also genuinely scary.
Then why is Trump leading more than Biden in the polls? I think we have to admit Trump has gained sympathy from those who may not be outright fascists, but sees him as lesser evil to uphold their privileges. Many Americans think he is better on the economy than Biden, which is why Trump is leading. People reminisce on the pre-Covid economy under Trump.
Forgive me for invoking Ad Hitlerum on this, but the similarity of Nazi's rise to power and of Trump is very striking. Many German voters, including the right of all flavours, felt threatened by the growing popularity of communism as the communist election victory might take away their property. So, moderates, businesses and conservatives thought Hitler and the Nazis is the safer bet, and either supported him or did not mind him because the other option is their wealth might be taken from them.
At the end of the day, voters can be pretty self-interested and most of the time we vote on what serves us economically. I'm afraid we don't have another Roosevelt to save us from economic woes while still upholding democratic values.