this post was submitted on 12 Mar 2024
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[–] KneeTitts@lemmy.world 31 points 8 months ago (2 children)

They had her anywhere between a 70-90% chance to win

And its important to note that these predictions were for the pop vote, which she did actually win, so they were actually right.

[–] EatATaco@lemm.ee 9 points 8 months ago (1 children)

And its important to note that these predictions were for the pop vote, which she did actually win, so they were actually right.

I'm not sure this is entirely true. Many polls just look at the popular vote, but most of the polls that claim "chance of winning" take into account the EC.

[–] Pips@lemmy.sdf.org 12 points 8 months ago

538 had her going into the election with a 70% chance of winning the electoral college. Nate Silver also went on multiple shows basically doing everything he could to get people to understand that meant 3 out of 10 times she loses.

[–] nonailsleft@lemm.ee 8 points 8 months ago (1 children)

No, 538 (and RCP?) actually has a rolling projection of 'real' chance to win the EC. But the chances of Hillary declined from >90% to 70% in the last week or so. When she was >90% everybody would say it looked like she was going to win, and that's what people remember.

[–] Furbag@lemmy.world 1 points 8 months ago

But the chances of Hillary declined from >90% to 70% in the last week or so.

Oh yeah, the Comey Probe. Back in the days when having the FBI open an investigation into you was enough to kill your presidential aspirations.

Or at least that was the case for Hillary Clinton and the moderate voter bloc, but somehow Donald Trump is not held to such high standards.