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The scary thing I find about long winded arguments about nuclear conflict is that at one point, the leaders holding the triggers eventually come to the conclusion that you either launch everything all at once or you don't .... in the cold logic of nuclear warfare, each side only has one chance at "winning" and at the very least imposing as much damage as possible to the other side if you are likely to lose - which means there is no middle or moderate option, you either do it all or nothing because there will be no after.
So no matter what military logic that anyone can explain .... there are only two options to nuclear warfare ..... either nothing happens .... or everything gets launched and we all die (or at least 90% of us will)
In that context, if nuclear Armageddon does occur ... it won't matter who started it ... all that will matter is who survives it. And chances are the survivors will never know what happened or why.