Yeah. When Apollo, RiF, Relay, et al stop working, a large amount of people who just use Reddit on their phones and don't really engage with the hows and whys of the platform itself will suddenly get pushed to either figure out the Reddit official app or try something else. There will probably be a bump then, via whatever is available on the App Store/Play. I expect most will just stop using Reddit and continue using whatever other apps they already use that work (ie Instagram, Twitter, Mastodon, et al). A significant amount will just use the official Reddit app. A substantial minority will start to look for Reddit alternatives though.

Of those who stick with Reddit, or just abandon it; there will be a hole left, a Reddit shaped hole in their heart (or at least their bathroom doomscrolling). Even new Reddit won't fill that hole after July 1st. As more and more abandon Reddit and find their way to Lemmy and kbin, that hole can be filled better here.

I think Lemmy and kbin already have that critical mass. They'll be interesting enough to maintain their communities and organically grow, so the continued influx of Reddit refugees will just accelerate their growth.