this post was submitted on 11 May 2024
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I'm just guessing, but I think it will get balkanized at some point and some them will turn to a progressive direction, maybe even socialist if the conditions allow it. It's too big a country for it to stay like that after collapsing in its imperial position, and it being divided into semi-autonomous states with their own laws makes balkanization all the more easy.
People keep talking about balkanization, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. A Balkanized America is probably one of the most unstable things to happen in human history and I think Russia and China would prevent that from happening one way or another. Breaking America up is essentially just increasing the number of nuclear powers in the world which for obvious reasons would be hella fucked.
I don't think they have anywhere close enough military might and political will to keep a balkanizing US together. You could have a repeat of the Eight Nation Alliance where an alliance of multiple nations decide to hold the US together, but that's just balkinzation in another name since those alliance of nations will most likely partition the US into multiple parts with each nation administrating a particular partition. This was what happened to parts of the Ottoman Empire after WWI and Germany after WWII.
Partitioning would work I think, but the main point is the US breaking up independently is not really on the table for the rest of the world. It’s too unstable for other nations to do nothing. Imagine 4 or 5 new Israel’s all threatening to annihilate not only one another, but also any one of old Americas enemies? It’s not going to happen imho