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this post was submitted on 24 May 2024
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And, again, national polls are pointless because we don't have national elections.
California, Oregon, Washington, are all voting Biden.
Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, are all voting Trump.
So what it comes down to are the bare minority of states that are actually in play:
Starting here:
Let's look at these one by one:
Nevada: Trump +4 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/nevada/
Arizona: Toss up. Biden +2 to Trump +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
New Mexico: No useful polling.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/
Minnesota: Toss up. Tie, Biden +2, Trump +3 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/
Wisconsin: Toss up. Tie, Biden +2, Trump +1, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/wisconsin/
Michigan: Toss up. Biden +2, +4 to Trump +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/
Pennsylvania: Toss up. Biden +2, +3 to Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/
Georgia: Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
So that gives us this:
Which is actually a GIANT improvement for Biden. Polling before this had shown him LOSING all those toss up states.
There is still an issue in that Trump is only 13 electoral college votes shy of a win while Biden is down 59. There's less wiggle room on Biden's side.
Michigan or Pennsylvania ALONE would put Trump over the top. Biden HAS to win those two states, but that still leaves him 25 short of the win.
Taking those off the table for Biden, Trump would only need 2 of the remaining 4 toss up states to get the votes he needs. Biden needs 3/4.
Here's one scenario where everything comes down to New Mexico where we have had absolutely no useful polling since last August:
Biden taking New Mexico would give him the win with only 22 states + Washington DC, compared to Trumps 28 states. We would never hear the end of it.
Excellent analysis. Anecdotally it seems to me that unless the I25 corridor suffers some kind of world changing event, New Mexico is going to go to Biden. NM is purple for sure, but it went to both Gore and HRC. In the places I've been there it's only bluer now.
I tend to agree, but we really need recent polling...
We definitely need something better than "some asshole's vibe check", but honestly I think apathy is a bigger threat to Biden than Trump. I think Trump winning the polls will bring more turnout, and that turnout will be more "I have to vote for him again?" than "my faschi boy can do it"
Republicans are generally convinced that empty land votes. It's absurd enough that we have to live with the Senate where 800,000 people in Wyoming or North Dakota get the same voting power as 40 million in California.
I always appreciate your analysis. Thank you. If the election was held today, more than likely Trump would win. I don't know why Dems aren't ringing the alarm about that. I think they have some delusions of grandeur that Biden will just magically pickup more support closer to the election.
It would help if Biden were actually campaigning NOW. Instead, it looks like he's waiting for the convention in August which will be too late.