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I wish this was cause for hope, but polls are still showing Trump neck and neck usually with a 2% lead over Biden. It's really going to come down to at least two, probably three, swing states. Given that some of them allow the EC vote to be split, there is even a possibility of a Tie.
The last couple of elections have shown the polls to be unreliable with a distinct bias favoring Republicans in appearance. Last I heard the popular theory was boomers are more likely to answer random calls and have time for a bunch of questions.
No. The polls do swing about 4% but it’s in a random direction in every election no matter what.
Almost no polls use landline random digit dialing exclusively anymore. Some call cell phones, some do online surveys or in person surveys, and some do focus groups.
Yes; that's entirely consistent with what I said. I wasn't even considering that some polls might be calling landlines when I made my comment.
Okay but the Trump "victory" of 2016 was shocking to most analysts.
I'm talking about data within the past 4 years. 2016 was 8 years ago.
Right so the last 3 elections but not the election 4 ago specifically, okay.
Not even going to include midterm elections for Congress?
Including the midterm election is how I got a grand total of 2.
1 presidential 4 years ago.
1 midterm 2 years ago.
1+1=2.
2 elections.
Get it yet?
Please consider taking the time to think instead of immediately jumping to a knee-jerk response.
Ah you right, you said 4 years but I kept going with the 8 years line of thinking.
It's late for me, so I get it. Sorry for the condescending tone I took at the end.
Whatever happens will happen. We don't have control over the outcome only our efforts. Do what you can now to fight for what you believe. Stressing over polls doesn't help.
The best possible choices come from having access to all possible information.
Sure, about the candidates and their stances. All the candidates manipulate the polls to make it look like their ahead and they are just used to pressure people to vote for one of the major parties. Vote for who you want in office. And if you are inclined then try to sway others. But this bandwagon appeal isn't the way.
How long does your little segway take to get to the part about the lizard people?
There is no need for personal attacks. If you are implying I subscribe to conspiracy theories then you are not correct.
No no, not conspiracy theories, just that the candidates respectively each own the media as a whole and that all polls are made up numbers.
If trump internal polling showed the same lead, there's no way he would show up to try to eat away a slice of the libertarians puny 2-3% of the vote.
I think the numbers look way worse for Trump than national pollsters show and I think their polling indicates Trump loses in a landslide if he's convicted in any of his cases.
That it should require a conviction is still batshit insane. That's still way too damning of a good portion of the American public.
TBF, A or B Polling won't show any votes for C, but with how third party is more popular than in the past for both major parties this year in the wake of the Gaza Genocide it could negatively impact either candidate. That doesn't mean the polling is meaningless.
Trump is polling with a lead even as closing arguments are heard in his hush money trial today, and he has suspended his ~~insurrection~~ classified documents criminal trial indefinitely with help from a Judge Cannon that he appointed during his term.
We don't have to like it but we have to accept the facts here, Trump is popular and that threatens the future of US Democracy and NATO.
EDIT: His insurrection trials are held up over some other BS.
Slight correction: the insurrection case is held up by the Supreme Court sitting on their hands. The classified document case is held up by Cannon.
No, it had a date set for May 20th and Judge Cannon postponed it with no new date set. She made the decision on May 7th, less than 2 weeks before the trial.
Trump's criminal insurrection trial would have already started if Cannon didn't postpone it.
No, the insurrection trial is held up by the scotus. It always would have been, with or without Cannon.
The Trial
Would Be
Happening Right Now
Unless Judge Cannon Postponed It
Cannon isn't in charge of the insurrection challenge.
Ah you're right, it's his other other criminal trial, the classified documents hoarded at Mara Lago. It's kind of hard to keep track of his felonies at this rate.