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I think there's a valid argument to be made that the cheeto did "outsmart" the gop, for certain values of smart. He tapped into the country's desire for overt racism under a strongman fascist figure in a way no one else was recognizing in 2016, and as a result he made every single GOPer bend the knee to him, even his most vocal critics.
Sure, that could only happen to a party with no policy and zero principles, but he did it. He became the chief pile of shit on his throne overlooking his subjects made of watery diarrhea.
He didn't outsmart the GOP, he just appealed to the primary voter more. Lots of celebrity status and strongman type talk. After that GOP does what it does best, fall in line lest the Dems win.