Canada

keeping returns below inflation will divert investors from the real estate market over time.

There are multiple types of Real Estate investors. We want to attract investors who build, who finance land development, infill, retrofits and so on. These will keep coming because the goal is to sell the labor of construction, and that can still be profitable. We don't want to attract land speculators or rent-seekers, these provide little value to the market.

They will HODL however if not presented with exit strategy. If they are allowed time to divest and exit - they will IMO

Investors (i.e. institutional/professionals, not amateurs) don't hold on to investments because they lack an exit strategy. It's the exact opposite. Investors get rid of assets as soon as there's enough information to say a loss is likely.

I know that the biggest chunk of real estate "investors" are amateur shops, people hoarding homes as their retirement plan, and these might hold on despite bad performance yeah. This happens all over the world because in most markets Real Estate is a bad investment, yet people are addicted to it.

But in any case, I was discussing the outcomes under the hypothesis that home prices are following inflation, so the hypothesis includes the assumption that there's enough market transactions to put those prices under control.