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Biden camp warns Trump could still get re-elected with ‘unhinged campaign of revenge’
(www.independent.co.uk)
this post was submitted on 30 May 2024
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Some 10% to 27% of Americans, depending on whom you ask, want the full Trump program: mass executions of liberals, bans on contraception and homosexuality, Christian nationalism, the whole Unified Reich thing, and plenty of opportunities to denounce annoying neighbours/coworkers/acquaintances as “woke” and have then taken away. Another 10-20% are low-information voters who “aren’t political”, but know, from news headlines, that things are in some way not going well, and based on vibes, believe it’s time for a change of administration. Being nonpolitical, they don’t care who replaces Biden, as long as it’s someone else, and of course, don’t understand Duverger’s Law and the Electoral College and thus don’t see why it couldn’t be literally anyone else.
You're forgetting a decent subset. Ones who are informed but would rather vote 3rd party, which due to not having Teddy Roosevelt won't do shit, rather than vote for either of these guys
Or not at all. The Biden first term has been deeply depressing and demotivating. At some point, people have to live their lives and can't be entirely subsumed in politics.
If they're struggling to make rent, if they can't get health care after picking up the Long COVID or caring for a relative to did, if they're still crippled by student debts that never got relieved, if they've got loved ones abroad or in border detention centers who are being brutalized by US foreign policy, if they can't afford a new car because Biden just slapped a giant tariff in cheap new imports, or who are simply too overworked and underpaid to afford the luxury of a political fixation, I can see people tuning out this election cycle as another media circus.
If Biden's truly changing the lives of millions of people with his public policy, maybe none of that will matter. Maybe there will be legions of staunch Biden-heads bellying up to the polls in support of their savior. But I see a step gulf between what Democrats say is happening and what people sick of this administration are experiencing. I suspect that gulf will be what sinks him in November.
i suspect abortion is the life line that will give biden the victory he wants
I completely agree that's what I meant by the 3rd party. Those who will refuse to vote for either and I tend to find that more common from those who would've voted Democrat compared to the ones that would've voted Republican
You find lots of defectors in homogenous states. Texas is flush with libertarian conservatives who believe they aren't served by the GOP. California has it's fill of socialists disgusted with corporate shills in the "liberal" party.
Swing states have to play friendlier with these types of voters, producing lots of oddball candidates like Dennis Kucinich and Ilhan Omar. One reason Dem Senators are running so far ahead of Biden is due to their moderate appeal in their states relative to his extremist views.
duverger's "law" is a useless tautology.