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Genuinely, don’t bank on them losing. We can’t afford to underestimate the mass appeal of strongman rhetoric. It’s completely fucked. But this exact approach has worked as a precursor to a lot of authoritarian regimes.
I can't believe how many people I'm seeing who automatically assume that it's going to be an auto-lose for the right in the upcoming election. Do they not remember how everyone had this exact sentiment in 2015? We can't let ourselves fall any further by losing again to someone we thought couldn't win.
We should compare against the 2020 election, not 2016.
Have voters who supported Biden in 2020 switched to supporting Trump in 2024? I think not. If anything, I think recent news may have convinced a few Trump supporters to switch sides (potentially to a third party, which is still a win for Biden).
Still, it's important that people actually get out and vote, because the margins are slim in a few important states. PA and GA come to mind.
It's not so much that people will switch sides, it's that they won't vote at all. I know so many people who thought voting in 2016 was worthless because Trump was never going to win. Anyone who views voting as a hassle is a lot less likely to do it if they think that the results are guaranteed, so we need to be mindful that we thought that exact same thing in 2016, which caused us to get the worst president ever, and I personally believe we only won 2020 not because people switched sides, but because so many people who never bothered to vote before finally went out and did it to stop Trump.