this post was submitted on 01 Jul 2024
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[–] tal 2 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

northern ice sea...north of st petersburg.

The Baltic Sea?

[–] Badeendje@lemmy.world 2 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Arctic ocean. I did a literal translation from Dutch.. which made sense but was wrong. Sry

[–] tal 1 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Ah, okay, gotcha.

So, there are a couple issues:

  • I'd guess that Russia is able to prevent a surface ship from approaching Russia in any ocean unless someone can fight an offensive air and naval war to get control of that ocean.

  • I'm guessing (you said "container ship") that the idea might be to use a concealed civilian vessel that then unloads some kind of surprise attack. While disguised military ships have been used to conduct armed warfare before, the last time I can think of an example was British Q-ships in World War I; I'm not sure that this is still legal.

  • Turkey has closed the Turkish Straits to warships due to the conflict, so technically no warships are supposed to pass, from either side. I'm I believe that it violates the convention governing this to either tell Turkey that the warship isn't actually a warship or if Turkey knows but preferentially lets warships through. That being said, I guess theoretically Ukraine could assemble such an attack using a ship somewhere far away from Ukraine.

  • My guess is that if Ukraine had a lot of long-range cruise missiles, they'd probably be using them in their own theater of operations, as they're pretty short on them.

  • I don't think that Russia is using strategic bombers for the glide bombing attacks, so whatever the benefits of hitting them, I'm not sure that it would be a counter to the glide bomb attacks. kagis Yeah, this has the (much more numerous) Su-34 being used:

    On or just before Thursday, an air force Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber lobbed a single FAB-3000 bomb with pop-out wings and satellite guidance at a multi-story building Russian intelligence had identified as a staging base for Ukrainian troops in Lyptsi, 10 miles north of Kharkiv in northern Ukraine.

[–] Badeendje@lemmy.world 1 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Strategic bombers are used to launch the hypersonics at Ukraine. They are rarer so a high value target. If they can cut of kinzal at its roots.

[–] tal 1 points 2 weeks ago

That's true, though IIRC there are two planes, and I think that one of them -- and the more-numerous one -- is a variant of some multirole fighter.

kagis

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh-47M2_Kinzhal

Launch platform

  • MiG-31BM/K
  • Tu-22M3M
  • Su-34 (reportedly)
  • Su‐57 (planned)

Looks like two confirmed, another possible, another eventually (though I can't imagine using the rare, intended-for-another-purposes Su-57 if they could use the others).