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Nah false flag. It looks staged.
I highly doubt that, staging something like this would be an insanely dangerous move, a slight miss from the shooter in such a scenario would be lethal, and given other people at the event seem to have been killed, it seems clear that lethal rounds were used. Trump may be a fan of ridiculous stunts, but he's also pretty self interested; I do not think he would risk his own life for such a stunt.
I understand the impulse to not want someone one agrees with politically to have done something like try a political assassination, and then immediately leap to the idea that the notion that the event might help the intended victim's political chances is just a bit too convenient and therefore must mean they orchestrated it, but it must be remembered that, whatever views one has, or groups one is in, or identities one holds, as long as they are not so obscure as to be shared by only a handful of people, it is statistically likely that there will be people who are on your team or side of group who are willing to do something like this given the chance, just by virtue of such people making up a fraction of the population.
Trump is hated by a lot of people, myself included and a large fraction of the people likely to be reading this too I'm sure. It is not at all unrealistic to imagine that someone hates him enough to try to kill him.
The case, in my mind, for the false flag hypothesis is simple: he's a blithering coward. If a serious attempt was made on his life, nothing about his prior behavior suggests he would be fist-pumping. His confidence betrays comfort. Further, he idolizes those who have used similar false flags. Maintaining composure in such an event is so remote a possibility, that the probability of an orchestrated scenario with foreknowledge, a common blood capsule, and collateral damage seems comparatively likely.
Not certain, of course, but probable enough for consideration. Certainly it's far too early to draw concrete conclusions one way or another. However, if it were a false flag, how would it look differently?
Indeed he is a known coward, which is why getting someone to shoot at him and miss is absolutely off brand for him. The risk is way too high.
I hunt and shoot long range and I would trust myself to hit the head at that range, but not a chance on the ear. Even wind is too great a factor and the potential for an accidental fatality is just way too high.
I don't consider myself a coward and there's no way I'd set up this shot. It's Russian roulette.
This assumes he was shot at directly. A stage blood pack in the midst of anticipated gunfire sounds more likely to me than a triumphant, exposed rise after actually being hit.
Still, far from a certainty. But the rhetorical power of such an event, the uncharacteristically brave behavior, and the similarity to known false flags in ahem historical regimes prevent me from discarding the hypothesis.