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afaik this is a question science can not yet answer, but probably both to some extent
edit: please disregard everything below, i got emotional and said some really stupid shit, a good part of it against my own better knowledge i'm sorry, i'll try not to do it in the future, but i probably will
I don't know if we need to go so far as to invoke "science" when you can just ask trans people. Most of us have thought about this question at some point. The answer is, as with so much else, it depends on the person. Lots of us would still physically transition, even in a perfect world with no gender-based bigotry. Lots of us wouldn't. Lots of us would change our bodies in some ways and not in others. Now sure, scientists could try and do surveys to see how common various gender-affirming procedures might be in such a hypothetical perfect world, but I have to say, I don't really see why it matters. I just want a world where transition-related care is available to those who want it, when they want it, and not forced on those who don't.
the question here is whenever being trans stems from the social environment, or whenever it is of biological origin. that is a question that is very hard to answer.
And what I'm saying is that I think we can answer this, by asking trans people about their experience of transness. There's clearly a biological component to some gender feelings, because if there weren't you wouldn't have so many trans people talking about how much better they feel on hormones. But also, some gender feelings are clearly social, which is why so many trans people really, truly enjoy performing their chosen gender. And I just don't see what more science can tell us here. That those of us who feel better on hormones aren't imagining it, I guess? I suppose it would be nice to have proof of that that cis people can't argue with, but they still will, because transphobia doesn't come from a place of logic.
I guess, to sum up, I'm not in principle opposed to science being done to try to study transness, but I am also extremely wary of bad science being used to try to get rid of us, and anything trying to make a hard distinction between transness being social or biological seems quite dangerous to me.
you are by no means wrong, but there is a lack of empirical research in this field. that is all that i want to say really. i absolutely agree that it is both, but we aren't some idiots who just go off what sounds right, we do science to know what is right. and that is really hard to do. and that means i won't just say it is that, if i don't have or partially lack empirical prove that it actually is.