These are not signs of a recession, but rather signs of a special economic operation.
-Message from the Russian Government
this post was submitted on 11 Aug 2024
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The russia economy has been growing at 2-3% for literally decades and has an economy that depends on petrol being $110 a barrel.
They will never stop being a second tier economy unless they wake up to how corrupt and inept their government is. They can’t even brute force it with people - they have ~15mill fewer people than they did going into WWI over 100 years ago.
They are slowly devolving into a rogue state and at this point it’s up to them to solve it. They’ve seceded from the world. Godspeed to them, truly. We have lost a beautiful culture and people to the poor decision making of their government.
They have a nuclear arsenal, meaning "Godspeed to that crumbling rogue state" is a suboptimal position to take on Russia.
So does North Korea.
Flippancy aside, “Godspeed” isn’t “fuck em.” I truly hope they can get their shit together.
The fact they've been growing at all for the last few years is absolutely fucking disgusting. The rest of the world failed to respond and we should be ashamed.
Maybe, maybe not. With such a mass of resources it could've been hard to take it below zero even with all the sanctions and corruption that eats the economy for decades. But here is the thing: GDP is a favorite metric of Putin (and ВВП == his initials lol) but it's misguiding, more so for a semi-wartime economy because military equipment that ends up in ukrainian soil counts as a product too, and with a third of a budget dedicated to that waste, they are actually in a pretty depressive state. Positive numbers don't mean shit if this amount of products is paid and consumed by the government without getting anything back. That's like if one guy on a minecraft server took everyone's diamonds to make 64 diamond hoes, or just dropped them into lava. By more sensible calculations, with the unnaturally ballooning MIC, just a 5% uptick means production of everything else is fried and fucked.
Their growth is due to a war economy, but producing a 10M$ tank that will just get blown up is not really useful even if the 10M$ is "in the economy".
It's like printing more money, looks goot first but it will crash if the money isn't used for economic growth (hint: in russia it isn't).
Also, the wartime economy removes people from economically sound positions and puts them to make weaponry (not for export, to get blown up) which doubles down on the bad idea.
That6s why the inflation is galoping even when the central bank hikes intetest rates like crazy (which stifles good economical growth too!).
The russian economy is so crappy it's crazy it isn't already burning.
Reading this makes me feel sad. Few people are able to destroy a whole culture.
Even if Putin dies and gets replaced by someone who immediately stops the war and brings Russia back into a mindset of international trade and cooperation, Russia's economy will still be fucked for well over a century by the absolute disaster that is its demographics. They were already experiencing very bad "echoes" in their demographics from a entire generations being destroyed by their meat wave tactics of WW2. Now the problem is even worse.
Putin might have completely ruined Russia for centuries.
It’s not just WWII even!
I was talking to someone the other day about Russia’s collective casualties just from ~1913-1945. You have:
- WWI (4-6mill depending on the source)
- the Russian civil war (10-12mill IIRC)
- WWII (wide range but most scholars IME settle on 20-25mill throughout the Soviet Union).
So we’re talking, super conservatively, 20-30mill Russians dead if we remove non-Russian Soviet Union casualties. This is in just over 30 years. Most of these will be men which massive influenced their demographics until the 80’s or so. Women used to outnumber men around 2:1 if memory serves.
A lot of napkin math but all of this is to say: in 1910 Russia was over 160mill people. Today, it’s under 145mill.
Their invasion of Ukraine has led to somewhere between 250,000-450,000 Russians dead.
There’s a lot to glean from those numbers.
This country has an obvious but untold tradition of same-sex families: of mom and grandma. A lot of my classmates grew up like that after either a divorce or a death of a father, and remarriage is rare for those who have kids. Besides the country itself is usually compared to a miserable old woman, one of the most typical punchline to national anecdotes is how one argues with wife's mom, тёща, and a bunch of tabloid papers and toponims are named after her verbally poisonous tongue. I wonder how that affects the mass psyche and contributes to sociopolitical events.
That was not obvious to me and really interesting
I'm glad it was.
I now find that the 'obviosity' thing is misplaced. It comes from every time I talk about it with my peers - in a context of anti-LGBTQ+ propaganda. In a recent change of constitution it was established that the traditional russian family is a union of a man and a woman (you could've heard rightwing policies with the same wording from other places), and then the government even called 2022 as the Year of the Family, all while demographic problems made women-only family a tradition, women being flatmates a key to survival and men being disposed en masse in one another meatgrinder a daily thing.
Russia's economy will still be fucked for well over a century
I don't think it'll be a century.
Look at Czechia, they're booming after being stuck under the thumb of the Nazis who destroyed most of their non-war industrial output, then the Soviets who destroyed the rest. Since 1992, they've put in the hard yards, kick started their economy and industry and fully rejoined the west as a good friend.
It'll be another ~25 years after they finally decide to join us before they're back in a good position, but that's within the lifetimes of the people who could make that choice. They could not only choose, but see the positive outcome of those choices if they started today.
Czechia has massively benefitted from the structural funds of the EU, Russia might not have that option...
And so it goes. Nero fiddled, Putin danced.
I'm following the Kursk Oblast incursion and I have to say it's wonderful news.
I'd almost feel bad for Putin if he wasn't a genocidal maniac
Fake news! The Russian economy is booming!
This is not a sign of recession coming! It's just a special economy operation!
Precisely none of Russia’s self-reported economic measures can be trusted at this point. They’ve been heavily manipulating them since the beginning of 2022, at the very latest.
lol, fuck the blyats. Let them eat shit.
Who remembers the posts a couple of weeks ago about how the Russian economy was booming and how people were suggesting that would continue?