NY Times polling has been kind of an outlier lately. In the opposite direction, they just had a PA Harris+4 a few days ago. Don't let the polling despair you, turn it into action
this post was submitted on 23 Sep 2024
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Full Methodology
The New York Times/Siena College polls were conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina from Sept. 17 to 21, 2024; In all, 2,077 likely voters were interviewed.
Harris voter: checks caller ID, sees it’s spam, blocks call
NYT: a ha! But we’ll just get that one millennial asshole who answered and said they’d vote trump to troll us and multiply it by 1,000. There. All balanced out now. Looks good.
Polls.
That’s without joking exactly what they do. Now if that one millennial voter is a different one in each cohort of participants you get huge swings in the survey that are not very predictive of election outcomes, and that error is poorly represented in the margin of error.
Yeah. No joke.
Opinion polls look good, opinion polls look bad, doesn't matter. Just get yourself and the people around you to vote for Harris and progressives all the way down the ticket.
I'm sure New York Times made sure to poll few enough people to get what they wanted with their ... checks article ...
The margin of error in each state is between four and five percentage points.
So, Statistics 101, which surely no journalist has ever taken, says we can't say anything about anyone leading anyone else here.
Ok then.
The NYT has its place. NYT polls are crap. Political coverage? Crap. Timely news coverage? Crap. The occasional long-form piece about an obscure musicology journal with only about three dozen subscribers worldwide that’s experiencing some crazy infighting? Stellar.
Hey, NYT Cooking is fantastic, as long as you cut the recipe in half but keep the original amount of garlic.
The crossword puzzles are OK.
Oh yeah. I can’t speak for all of its spin-offs. Recipe standalone is good. But that’s a hell of a paywall.
Trump popular with large groups of “some people” in “certain groups”
New York Times - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)
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MBFC: Left-Center - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: High - United States of America
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https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/us/politics/times-siena-polls-arizona-georgia-north-carolina.html?smid=url-share