“It’s not that the wind is blowing, it’s what the wind is blowing. If you get hit with a Volvo, it don’t matter how many pushups you did that morning.”
—Ron White
this post was submitted on 09 Oct 2024
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Models are seeming to lean towards Milton making landfall as a cat 4. We'll see for sure tomorrow, but it's not looking good.
I said whan this thing formed, it was going to be a cat 4 when it hits. The water is way too warm
I live in MI and my co-workers Mom just said that her county didn't get an evacuation warning until this morning. She now has no option but to stay. There's no gas, no flights out, and not enough time to go get her. He has to hope that Meatball Ron saves her at this point.
It sucks that she felt that she needed to wait to be told to leave to actually do it. I'm sorry she's in this situation.
I wish her luck but how did she not see this coming?
When Ian came, I guess they evacuated her and then nothing happened, so she thought the same thing would happen. I don't know, she's not my mom
What about shelters?
I don't know. I'm in Michigan.
The time to evac was two days ago.
Source: Been there done that, many times.
What is everyone’s temperature about the situation here? I have never lived in a hurricane prone area like Florida.
If I was basing it completely on national coverage, I am getting the impression that any region in the path of the Milton will get flattened by sudden sea rise. Even the AP article paints a grim picture:
TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — A steady rain fell in the Tampa Bay area Wednesday morning as a mighty Hurricane Milton churned toward a potentially catastrophic collision with the west coast of Florida, where some residents insisted they would stay even after millions were ordered to evacuate. Stragglers face grim odds of surviving, officials said
However, looking into it more and trying to be less emotional. Florida’s emergency management system is issuing evacuation orders for many counties in Milton’s path. But some “inland” counties like Polk have no evacuation orders despite adjacent county, Hillsborough, having mandatory evacuation orders [1].
Then if you navigate to the county level (ie, Hillsborough). Only specific zones were issued mandatory evacuation. At this time, residents of Hillsborough county in zones “A” and “B” (and all mobile homes) given mandatory evacuation. People in other zones advised it was optional [2].
What did we observe with Helene? Were these local government evacuation orders completely wrong and devastated areas that previously had optional evacuation?
[1] https://www.floridadisaster.org/evacuation-orders/
[2] https://hcfl.gov/residents/public-safety/emergency-management/find-evacuation-information
Realistically, the places that get “flattened” are beach areas or inland areas on tidal waterways like major rivers. The vast majority of after storm damage for folks is roof damage from wind and property damage from airborne debris.
This isn’t to downplay storms at all, but if you’re in a modern house (concrete construction, roof straps, raised lot elevation), not in the direct path of the eye, and not on the beach, your residence will likely be fine. Know your area, assess the risks, and make the choice safest for you.
Flooding is almost always the lethal part of these storms and that’s the purpose of the mandatory evacuations, it’s to prevent people from being trapped and forcing emergency responders to risk their lives needlessly.
Sir the tornadoes would like a word with you.
I’ve been here for every hurricane in the last 30+ years and this is the first one I’ve been alerted for tornadoes in my area, and the first time anyone I know has even seen one.
Like I said, I’m not downplaying this shit, but historically when you’re talking about hurricanes that affect the entire state, most people are not hit by the tornadoes.
You're correct about the problem being flooding. The zones in Hillsborough county that were under evacuation orders were the low lying zones. I'm in one of those houses you speak of right now and Milton is currently about 50 miles away. I feel safe here. I know there may be some damage outside that I'll have to fix, but I would have to do that regardless.
It probably also helps that my house isn't in an evacuation zone, though there are houses in my neighborhood that are.
That’s my feeling too, and for Ian it was beneficial that I stayed because I was able to mitigate a leak that certainly would’ve ruined my house if I hadn’t been there.
We’re always in a mandatory evacuation B zone, but we’re several miles inland and our lot is 18ft above sea level, our street never floods. Place is just built different I guess.
Stay safe, friend!
I used to do some hurricane stuff, and talked with some people who did national disaster ops in Katrina. This was the last storm where ops were based in the region, as they had to record last messages to their families and evacuate on foot from the flooding command center. A lot of people don’t know how to calculate risk and assume they will be fine. I hope they know to bring an ax into the attic if they retreat there.
Helene grazed Florida. This is going to be a direct hit.
It's looking like there was more storm surge with Helene. If Milton had hit 10-20 miles north though it would have been a toss up.