this post was submitted on 03 Nov 2024

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232

2024 Presidential Election Megapost! (lemmy.world)

submitted 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) by jordanlund@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

470 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Edit 12:11 PM 11/6 Pacific
Kentucky (8), Indiana (11), West Virginia (4), Florida (30), South Carolina (9), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Oklahoma (7), Arkansas (6), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (4*), Wyoming (3), Louisiana (8), Texas (40), Ohio (17), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Utah (6), Idaho (4), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), North Carolina (BG-16), Georgia (BG-16), Pennsylvanya (BG-19), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Maine (1*), Alaska (3), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6) called for Trump.

Vermont (3), Connecticut (7), District of Columbia (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Delaware (3), Illinois (19), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Colorado (10), California (54), Washington (12), Oregon (8), Virginia (13), Hawaii (4), New Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4), Minnesota (10), Nebraska (1*), Maine (3*) for Harris.

2 counties in PA have extended voting hours due to voting machine problems. 9:30 PM in one, 10:00 PM in the other.

Multiple precincts in Georgia have extended hours due to bomb threats.

Edit 03:09 PM Pacific Harris wins Guam.

https://www.guampdn.com/news/guam-picks-harris-over-trump-in-non-binding-presidential-straw-poll/article_657b06b8-9b97-11ef-9896-1302c4e2ebe9.html

This thread is for the Presidential election, my plan is to start marking wins as soon as they are called, sorted by time zone.

Some states are going to take longer than others. Polls generally close at 8 PM local time, but they can't start counting early/mail in votes until after the polls close.

Wisconsin in particular has an interesting system where ballots are collected by MUNICIPALITY, not precinct, they have over 1,800 ballot counting locations and don't report until ALL 1,800 are in.

https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2024/10/22/wisconsin-voters-election-milwaukee-security-denier

Currently 226 EC votes from Blue States:

4+19+10+7+3+3+4+10+11 +4+14+28+4+3+13+54+12 +10+5+8+6

NC called for Trump. -16 here, +16 to Trump.

GA called for Trump. -16 here, +16 to Trump.

PA called for Trump. -19 here, +19 to Trump.

AZ and NV both called for Trump, +11, +6

Which leaves 312 EC votes in Red States.

9+6+6+6+8+6+10+5+3+7 +3+40+30+11+8+17+9+11+4+3+4+4+3+16+16+19+11+6

270 to Win.

Online map here!

https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/

(page 3) 50 comments

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[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 14 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

10 PM Eastern / 7 PM Pacific
(BG 11 EC Votes) Arizona - Called for Trump
(BG 6) Nevada - Called For Trump
(R 4) Idaho - Called For Trump
(R 4) Montana - Called For Trump
(D 6) Utah - Called For Trump
(R 3) Wyoming - Called For Trump
(D 10) Colorado - Called For Harris
(D 5) New Mexico - Called For Harris
(D 8) Oregon - Called For Harris

[–] betterdeadthanreddit@lemmy.world 13 points 1 month ago

Shit.

[–] Aielman15@lemmy.world 13 points 1 month ago (2 children)

There's no excuse this time around. People know exactly who Trump is, and they have voted for him a second time.

I don't have much to say. I feel a mix of anger and disappointment.

Hopefully the Dems will be able to pick someone better to lead the party four years from now... I wonder what the world will look like four years from now.

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[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 13 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (7 children)

Here we go! Last run through the polls before the election!

Arizona - Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada - Trump +1 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

Georgia - Toss-Up - Trump +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

North Carolina - Trump +2 to +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Pennsylvania - Toss-Up Harris +1/+2 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan - Toss-Up Tie, Harris +1 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin - Toss-Up, Harris +1/+3 to Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Plotted on the map:

Advantage is with Trump in this scenario.

Assuming he takes Georgia, 2020 was an anomaly in my mind, GA has gone Republican in every other election since 1996, that gives Trump 264.

Which means if Harris loses ANY other state, she's done. She has to sweep PA, MI and WI to hit 274.

If the disaffected Arab vote in MI is enough to flip it, plus a Trump win in Georgia, that puts him at 279 to Harris 259. A scarily likely scenario.

[–] kescusay@lemmy.world 14 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Honestly, with all the news showing how poll herding has been happening, I think it's quite likely she sweeps the swing states. I'm less nervous now than I was a few days ago.

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[–] spector@lemmy.ca 13 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

The broadcaster in Canada interviewed a young Trump supporter woman. She said all the abortion fears are made up. And that abortion isn't real healthcare.

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[–] TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee 13 points 1 month ago (1 children)

My favorite take on this comes from James Carville:

"I'm gonna sleep soundly tonight. Have a couple of bourbons, maybe a gummy or two, but yeah. Gonna sleep soundly tonight on her chances to win this thing."

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[–] ininewcrow@lemmy.ca 13 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (3 children)

I'm in Canada and anxiously following this dumb election ... mostly because I have to because whoever wins will affect my life too.

This is like watching my neighbours standing outside their burning house and having an argument about which fire department they should call ..... while the house fire grows in size. And the choices of fire departments is a regular fire department or the other department which is a bunch of guys in a half ton truck with buckets of water.

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[–] acosmichippo@lemmy.world 13 points 1 month ago

this ain't happening folks. fuck.

[–] Ramenhunter84@lemmy.world 13 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (3 children)

Why da fk is CNN just totalling all the red states as if Donald Trump is winning right now? 😑😑

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[–] AmbiguousProps 12 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Updates from AP's decision desk:

Virginia:

As of about 9:30 p.m. EST, Harris isn’t doing as well as Biden in election returns at the same time during his race four years ago. Election officials in several counties in Virginia have also not yet reported results for votes cast by mail, which tend to favor Democrats. The race is too early to call.

North Carolina:

Trump is leading Harris by roughly 4 percentage points with more than half of the expected votes counted. Many of the state’s most populous counties haven’t reported significant numbers of votes cast in person on or before Election Day. In North Carolina, votes cast before Election Day made up 83% of total votes in 2020 and 58% in 2022.

[–] drunkpostdisaster@lemmy.world 12 points 1 month ago (10 children)

The bragging is going to make this so much worse.

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[–] pivot_root@lemmy.world 12 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Apparently, FOX called WI for Trump. That puts their estimates at him for the win, passing 270.

On a related note, MAGAs on social media are gloating and "owning the libs" like jackasses, as expected.

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[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 12 points 1 month ago

3 AM Eastern / 12 Midnight Pacific
American Samoa -

[–] LostMyRedditLogin@lemmy.world 12 points 1 month ago (3 children)

Republicans are at 51 Senate seats at the moment according to New York Times.

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[–] mayo@lemmy.world 12 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (9 children)

So uh.. what's the right attitude to deal with this assuming we get a Trump? And I mean personally. I lean towards absurdism.

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[–] AmbiguousProps 11 points 1 month ago

AP decision desk update for Michigan:

More than half of Michigan’s 83 counties had not reported any votes two hours after polls closed in much of the state. Only a handful of votes had been reported in Wayne and Macomb counties in the Detroit area, which tend to favor Democrats and Republicans, respectively.

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