The danger now is that Putin turns delusional. It is winter in the region, with temperatures close to freezing point in the Kramatorsk. Even if he achieves a breakthrough, he will still not achieve his stated war goal — the full capture of four Ukrainian oblasts. He has got one — Luhansk — but only portions of the other three.
Every single year we hear "it's winter" as if we're still living in the pre-industrial Napoleonic era. These people heard in high school that Russia won against Napoleon/Hitler because dumb generals didn't account for winter and are still running with it to this day.
(I don't doubt the weather can play a role, I'm just always annoyed at the reductionism typical to these "journalists". Bonus points for Great Manning Putin as usual.)
Edit: some juicy stuff though
Putin will almost surely demand an unfreezing of Russia’s reserve assets. This is a potential deal breaker for the Europeans. Unwilling to make any fiscal sacrifices for Europe, the Europeans had been hoping to plunder the $300bn pot of Russian reserve assets for military help and for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Putin will also demand the lifting of western sanctions. I struggle to see how there can be a peace deal without the full lifting of all sanctions, and especially the unfreezing of the assets.
I haven't seen this bold proposal anywhere until now. If that money is unilaterally seized even after a total Russian victory, I can't imagine a greater blow to trust in the USD.
Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, is basing his re-election campaign on fears of an escalation of the war. Macron would, if left alone, be one west Europe’s most effective supporters of Ukraine, but he is hampered by the political chaos in his own country – for which he himself is responsible when he called elections earlier this year. There is not much scope for increased spending for Ukraine anywhere. The UK does not have any fiscal capacity either. Germany does, but has made so many commitments already, that it is hard to see where the money is coming from.
The cannibalisation of Europe never ceases to amuse me. All three major European powers are facing legitimacy crises at home. There's a non-zero chance of no-confidence votes for the PMs of both France and the UK in 2025 alongside Scholz. Supporting the war is becoming political suicide.
A deal to freeze the conflict around current battle lines would be the best outcome for Ukraine, given the circumstances. I am hopeful, but not certain that it will happen. It would require some deft diplomacy by Trump’s foreign policy team.
We should perhaps stop for a moment to reflect on this last point. We have put ourselves into a position where Trump is our best hope to end the conflict. How did it come to this?
Lol. I can't actually see anything positive for the Ukrainian regime coming from Trump. From his rhetoric, he'll probably throw them completely under the bus in order to avoid having to give concessions regarding the US itself.
It could actually be smart if his administration decided to try and rebuild bridges with Russia in order to divert their alignment with China, but the damage might already be done on that front.