this post was submitted on 26 May 2025
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Image is of a solar park in Cuba, donated last year by China, sourced from this article.


To be honest, I don't have much to say about ongoing geopolitical events that hasn't already been said in previous threads (e.g. with India/Pakistan, Trump/Putin, and of course occupied Palestine), so this is more of a "news roundup" preamble for this week.

As we all know, the US (and the imperial core generally) has only three permitted international actions: sanctions, color revolution, and war. None of these have been going well lately, but sanctions are in particularly dire straits right now. Three examples from the last week or so:

  • The EU is on its 17th sanctions package, apparently, which is surprising, as I thought they were on their 76th or something. It apparently targets Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers, but I don't think anybody actually gives a shit because we all know it won't achieve anything, so, moving on...

  • The head of Nvidia (as well as many others) have come out and said that the US chip export controls on China have failed, remarking that China's internal motivations to develop alternatives are strong and proceeding rapidly, especially as China's number of skilled scientists is only growing. Nvidia has said that they had a 95% share of China's AI chip market in 2020 or so, but now they only have 50%.

  • Lastly, an interesting one: Iran has received its first set of railway shipment of solar panels from China, and there is hope for accelerating shipments of even more products. Myself and many others have predicted a decoupling of Iran from the West and towards China and Russia (especially if any Western-built product could have Israeli devices implanted into them, such as with the pager terrorist attack on Lebanon's doctors), and having a strong link with China will be a necessary step for Iran and their allies to continue their offensives against Israel.


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] KnownUnknownKnower@hexbear.net 47 points 2 days ago

Exclusive footage obtained by Al-Jazeera from a security operation carried out by Saraya Al-Quds in the Tuffah neighborhood of Gaza city, where they seized approximately 170 kilograms of highly explosive material dropped by IOF drones.

https://streamable.com/guuun9

https://t.me/PalestineTunes/441

[–] ThomasMuentzner@hexbear.net 46 points 2 days ago (9 children)

As start treaty demands the bombers to be parked in the Open ---> invest in big Copecages futures!

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 24 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

I don't think that's true, the "no shelter" part of START is about not disguising/camouflaging nuclear weapons and their delivery systems, you're allowed to use shelters for defence and to protect against the weather as far as I know, otherwise the B-2 hangars at Whiteman and every ICBM silo would be in violation of START.

Even if it was true and hardened aircraft shelters were banned, parts of the START treaty are no longer being followed . The planned modernisation program for Ohio Class ballistic missile submarines would put the USA at 36 launchers over the NEW START limit, and Russia's planned modernisation of it's nuclear forces would likely also put it over said limits. NEW START expires in February 2026, and both the US and Russia are planning to go over the limits it set on nuclear weapons, at least for now. START I ended in 2009, START II was never implemented, and negotiations for START III never finished. SORT ended in 2012 I think?

A future START treaty post February 2026 would need China at minimum to be a party to it. There is potential for one here, but it would need to be a trilateral US-China-Russia agreement at minimum. China's mass development of ballistic missiles over shorter ranges was the reason both the USA and Russia were desperate to get out of the INF treaty, so as to not cede to China here.

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[–] Torenico@hexbear.net 64 points 3 days ago (8 children)

Oh so a bunch of ukrainians using a truck and a few drones managed to sneak up and attack a large russian military base, causing almost irreparable damage almost for free? You should be taking notes...

I say, imagine being able to cripple a certain country's airforce in a revolutionary moment with just a few quadcopters and some courage... I'm just saying. Would be very useful in Minecraft...

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[–] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 63 points 3 days ago (7 children)

There is this trend on hexbear about continuous doomerism, and you need to break out of the cycle else you become defeatist. Some comments sometimes smell of fedposting in this regard. And you need to criticize objectively while maintain revolutionary optimism.

[–] MelianPretext@lemmygrad.ml 40 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (4 children)

“Doomerism” matters in the sense that a proper dialectical materialist analysis ought to take pessimistic signals into account and shouldn't be blinded by pure delusional optimism. I've recently been on a reading binge of pre-1989 leftist books on the USSR. Their perspectives on things, untouched by the hindsight of the later Soviet collapse, was really quite fascinating (and depressing) and it was telling that, apart from those leftists like Harpal Brar (who passed a couple months ago) that were "Stalinist" and therefore rarely took post-20th Congress Soviet leadership at their word, most completely failed to see the problems with the Gorbachevite USSR which led to the capitalist restoration within half a decade.

One example that stuck with me was a Western Soviet-sympathetic cultural anthropology written in 1985 which focused on the non-Russian nationalities in the USSR and took Khrushchev's claim as settled fact that the USSR had "solved" the issue of the nationality question. Then, in just 6 years after its publication, for various reasons, the entirety of the multinational Soviet Union was torn apart and, three decades later, what's effectively a Soviet civil war between Russia and Ukraine began. That form of sheer optimism (akin to the non-Marxist anti-imperialists like Pepe Escobar who used to BRICS-post constantly about the imminent end of dollar hegemony) should be avoided and that's why I think it's good for "doomers" like XHS who (whenever they take a break from pitching MMT, that is) try to sift through both the typical China collapse slop and the constant “it’s so joever” stuff from places like Naked Capitalism to attempt to highlight some of the contradictions within China and the endurance of the existing hegemonic system.

That said, the extreme end of doomerism can be too much. Still, it’s often understandable. The important thing to always keep in mind is that the entire point of being a socialist is about believing that there is a possibility that "the future can be better than the past if we're willing to fight for it" (to borrow a line from Steban, the Student Communist). Even with all the ongoing atrocities and depravity in the contemporary world, I think it's honestly a miracle that we're even in a situation like this at all where, very visibly, the current Western hegemonic structure is being eroded.

If the West had an actually capable piece of shit like FDR who had the capacity of imagination (such as his relationship with Stalin and his Four Policemen and UN ideas), rather than fail-sons like Clinton and Bush, the West might not have squandered its unipolar moment. Real despair was what people in the now formerly socialist countries felt in the 90s, when everything they’d worked for and believed in was suddenly ripped apart. Leftists in those places often have older family members that spiralled into life-long substance abuse or tragically took their lives from the sheer despair, hardship, cruelty and alienation of capitalist restoration. That was a level of humanitarian suffering unmatched in the entirety of our post World War 2 epoch. Someone from the r/trueanon subreddit recently posted about the WW2 veteran and Soviet poet Yulia Drunina who committed suicide in 1991.

If the neoliberals and neocons didn't kick the cold warriors like Kennan and Kissinger, who were screaming in alarm, to the curb, they might have found a way past their greed, paranoia and aversion to even remote degrees of power-sharing to bring post-Soviet oligarchic Russia into the fold. It's frankly astounding that they managed to alienate the likes Yeltsin and Putin, Russian history's most unabashed Western sycophants since the time of Peter I. With Putin on board, they could have applied coordinated pressure on China and completed the maritime and territorial encirclement to block off projects like BRI, by blockading Chinese access to inland Eurasia through Western-aligned Russian sabotage. By the time the 2010s came around, China might have been coerced into accepting a subordinate position to the US, which was the nature of the so-called “G2” deal that Obama purportedly offered and China rejected. That would truly have been the darkest timeline.

The fact that the USSR's catastrophic collapse didn't end in some thousand year American reich, even though the West had held nearly all the cards in the 90s, and that China could rise to become a new successor counterweight to that Western hegemony, though its inaction or contradictions may at times leave leftists and anti-imperialists wanting, is frankly miraculous in of itself. Of course, the infamously misguided euphoria leftists had about the "weakened" US following its defeat in Vietnam should be kept in mind. History never ends and the potential for some form of US and Western hegemonic comeback is always within the realm of possibility.

We’re still living in a world shaped by 500 years of continuous Western hegemony, both direct and indirect, and to be able to see that come apart at the seams, especially after the setbacks of 1989-91, however much of a "long dureé" process this unravelling sometimes seems, is honestly something, by the very fact that it’s happening at all, enough to make sustained nihilism or defeatism hard to justify.

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[–] LoveWitch@hexbear.net 43 points 2 days ago (5 children)

Great engineering breakdown of why SpaceX’s new rocket engineer, Raptor 3, is likely more of an explosive dud than the engine it is replacing. And why SpaceX is trapped in an engineering Catch-22 that probably makes the entire Starship project a flop that simply cannot succeed:

https://www.planetearthandbeyond.co/p/spacex-has-finally-figured-out-why-63b

At the time of writing, SpaceX has already spent approximately $10 billion on Starship and hasn’t even managed to reach proper orbit, let alone deliver any payload to space. For comparison, NASA’s Saturn V rocket, which was designed and built using more expensive and less accurate old-school analogue technology, cost roughly $6.4 billion to develop, and the launch costs were approximately $1.4 billion in today’s dollars. In other words, for the same amount of cash that Musk has splashed on creating a rocket that doesn’t work, NASA was able to send astronauts to lunar orbit using technology from the 1960s. And, even more embarrassingly for Musk, this sorry saga is only going to get worse.

… how did test flight 7 fail? Well, excessive harmonic vibrations ruptured the fuel lines, creating a gigantic fire that destroyed the entire upper stage mid-flight. This occurred despite the reduced stress placed on the engines and structure itself. Even worse, test flights 7 and 8 were launched using an improved version of Starship, featuring redesigned and strengthened fuel lines to prevent these failures from occurring.

So, why did this solution not work? Well, Starship has a huge thrust problem. Musk and his engineers overestimated the amount of thrust their Raptor engine could produce while designing the Starship. Even Musk himself has publicly stated that Starship can only take less than 50% of its promised payload to orbit, which is likely an overestimate. This means they are forced to cut down on as much of the craft’s weight as possible and push the engines to the limit during launches. Unfortunately, this makes the rocket more fragile and means the engines generate excessive heat and vibrations — which is a perfect recipe for guaranteed failure.

At the time, the cause of this failure was apparent to me and many others. It’s obvious SpaceX can’t make Starship robust enough to survive the thrust required for a fraction of its payload without dramatically increasing its weight and, therefore, reducing its payload to nothing.

On the eve of Starship’s 9th test flight, SpaceX finally revealed what happened during flight 8. A “flash” event occurred in one of the rocket’s engines, causing it to fail (or, more accurately, explode) and take out the other engines in the process. This led to the rocket tumbling uncontrollably and disintegrating in the atmosphere.

A flash is when a rocket’s propellant ignites when it shouldn’t, creating a sudden explosion. This can be caused by many things: a fuel leak igniting; an incomplete fuel and oxidiser mix that removed the engine; rapid pressure changes that disrupt the correct flow of fuel and propellant; or even overheating, causing combustion in the wrong places. However, SpaceX has stated that “the most probable root cause for the loss of Starship was identified as a hardware failure in one of the upper stage’s center Raptor engines.” This heavily suggests a fuel leak or an overheating problem, which can be caused by building these engines too light and fragile or pushing them too hard — which all but confirms my and many others’ speculations.

Flight 8 is damning evidence that these engines are being exerted beyond their natural limits and are still incapable of producing enough thrust, as well as that Starship is simultaneously far too heavy and far too fragile to actually function. This is a fatal catch-22 that is baked into the core design of Starship.

So, how does SpaceX address this issue? Well, with an updated engine: the Raptor 3. This engine is simpler, 7% lighter and has 21% more thrust than the current Raptor 2. Surely, that should solve all these problems, right?

Well, no. First of all, Musk has lied about Raptor’s thrust before, meaning that his claim of “21% more thrust” is seriously dubious. But also, the engine being 7% lighter and having a 21% increase in thrust isn’t nearly enough to increase Starship’s payload to usable levels.

What is more concerning is the method SpaceX used to made this engine so light and powerful. By modifying how the fuel flows, they have improved the engine’s internal cooling needs and supposedly eliminated the requirement for external heat shields and a fire suppression system. As a result, they have elected to remove these components, which has made it possible to save this amount of weight. Furthermore, the improved cooling will supposedly enable them to push the engine harder, creating the aforementioned 21% increase in thrust.

In other words, the current engines are being pushed too hard, causing them to fail from fuel leak fires and excessive heat, which has happened so consistently that no Starship has even survived a trip to space with a fraction of its proposed payload onboard. Yet somehow, the natural solution is to ditch the engine’s heat shields and fire suppression systems? That decision alone would be silly, but to then also push these engines 21% harder makes this entire proposal utterly moronic.

More thrust will create more vibrations and stress, causing fuel leaks (especially if the lines aren’t further enforced), incorrect fuel mixing, and unstable internal pressure. All of these factors can then create flashes, which overheat the engines and quickly develop into huge explosive fires, which will be even more catastrophic than before, as these engines have no heat shields or fire suppression systems.

[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 28 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (2 children)

Just to add to all this weight problem - NASA estimates that it will take around ~15 Starship in-orbit refuels in order to make one trip to the Moon. This means launching ~16 full Starships and doing 15 fuel transfers in orbit, something that they haven't even demonstrated once.

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[–] FunkyStuff@hexbear.net 38 points 2 days ago (2 children)

So, how does the drone attack affect peace talks? Does this extend the war significantly?

[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 34 points 2 days ago

It just shows Russia the US will continue to sacrifice Ukkkraine instead of making a deal for the rare earths.

I think Russia needs to start throwing US Bank executives and fund managers off high rises.

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 31 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

The peace talks have been a theatrical performance ever since the rejection of freezing the conflict at the current frontlines. Before that, there was promise, now it's back to war. The impasse being that Russia will not accept a freeze on the current frontline (they want full control of the four oblasts at minimum, they don't fully control them), and the US/NATO/Ukraine was unprepared to give Russia territory it doesn't control at the current time.

[–] plinky@hexbear.net 46 points 2 days ago (1 children)

mr. hezbollah, this could have been you inshallah-script

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[–] fever@hexbear.net 66 points 3 days ago (4 children)

Flags of ISIS being sold in Syrian bazaar now that the US certified HTS terrorist are ruling the country.

But hey, Assad is gone 🤡

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[–] DanicaTheRebel@hexbear.net 58 points 3 days ago

I think the main lessons of the Ukraine proxy war are:

1. Never let neoliberals run a war

2. Never ever ever trust America or its vassal states

3. No more half measures, Walter.

[–] KnownUnknownKnower@hexbear.net 70 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (2 children)

Dozens killed, hundreds shot at those bastard “aid facilities”

https://euromedmonitor.org/en/article/6749/Nearly-230-killed-or-wounded-as-Israel-carries-out-largest-massacre-since-new-aid-mechanism-was-enforced-in-Gaza

Hamas was right, these are nothing more than traps to further the extermination of a starving people

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[–] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 57 points 3 days ago (4 children)

lmao wtf is going on, Russian civilians literally did more to prevent greater losses from the attack then the goddamn Russian military

Russian men climbed onto the drone trucks, trying to stop the drones from taking off.

Dudes in gym gear had better opsec than Russian intelligence

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[–] fever@hexbear.net 56 points 3 days ago (1 children)

West can use Ukraine's right to defense to deal humiliating blows to Russia and Russia can use nothing because Putin is too in love with the idea of joining West's club of world domination that he rather have Moscow under drone attack than to threaten Israel and get NATO out of Ukraine as a concession.

God forbid Putin helping the Palestinian resistance or anything.

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[–] Seasonal_Peace@hexbear.net 36 points 2 days ago (13 children)

What can Russia do to counter the renewed escalation to the same extent? Does someone have to prevent Russia from using nuclear weapons?

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[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 40 points 3 days ago (1 children)
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