this post was submitted on 22 Jan 2024
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Image is of the Te Pati Maori (Maori Party) cofounders, Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. They have 6 of the 123 seats in the New Zealand parliament.


Officially confirming that the Republican primaries were a gigantic waste of time for everybody involved, Trump has massively beat everybody else in Iowa, and will very obviously be the Republican candidate for 2024. Given the abysmal state of the US economy (for everybody who isn't in the top 1-10%, which is mainly what national statistics reflect when they aren't telling blatant falsehoods), it's more plausible than ever that Trump may indeed once again become President - though I personally refuse to predict one way or another due to how volatile politics and geopolitics currently are. Project 2025 is coming, folks - either as the official Republican governance program, or as what the Democrats will do in 2026 after the midterms, stating that they have no other choice and have to reach across the aisle as they are the Adults In The Room™.

In other news...

Late last year, New Zealand voted in a new and very right-wing government, composed of the center-right National Party, the libertarian ACT Party (ACT stands for the "Association of Consumers and Taxpayers", good lord), and the fascist New Zealand First party. By what I can tell, this was the well-trodden path of "Vaguely center-left party does neoliberal austerity and causes a recession and workers fucking hated it and voted in a different party out of desperation," though the flooding and cyclones did add challenges to Chris Hipkins' short reign after Jacinda Ardern resigned.

It's worth noting that Hipkins was at least fairly China-friendly, meeting up with Xi Jinping on a five-day visit in the summer. They still do the whole "We have concerns about human rights" thing, but of all the countries of the imperial core, New Zealand is - or, perhaps, was - one of the most amicable. In 2021, China was New Zealand's single largest trading partner, with a third of exports going to China (more than Australia, the US, Japan, and South Korea combined), and they receive 22% of their imports from China too, more than any other single country.

Christopher Luxon, the new Prime Minister and sentient thumb, has said that he is exploring a closer relationship with AUKUS:

Luxon said New Zealand was interested in becoming involved in AUKUS Pillar 2: a commitment between the three partners to develop and share advanced military capabilities, including artificial intelligence, electronic warfare and hypersonics.

“We’ll work our way through that over the course of next year as we understand it more and think about what the opportunities may be for us,” Luxon said. “AUKUS is a very important element in ensuring we’ve got stability and peace in the region.”

This is not to say that Hipkins wanted nothing to do with AUKUS or Western organizations aimed generally against China - in fact, pre election, "he was open to conversations about joining Pillar II of AUKUS". But the current government is pushing down on the accelerator pedal.

The left-wing Maori party, Te Pati Maori, has stated that they want New Zealand to remain non-aligned, as joining AUKUS would erode the sovereignty of the country:

As Maori we cannot allow our sovereignty to be determined by others, whether they are in Canberra or Washington. Aotearoa should not act as Pacific spy base in the wars of imperial powers. Joining AUKUS will severely undermine our country’s sovereignty, constitution, and ability to remain nuclear free. There is too much at stake for our government to make a commitment of this magnitude without a democratic process.

In general, the party leaders of Te Pati Maori want New Zealand to be the "Switzerland of the Pacific", which is perhaps not the greatest analogy given all the problems Switzerland had and has, but we understand the intended meaning of desiring neutrality.


The Country of the Week is New Zealand! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] voight@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)
Erdogan's double game: Praising Palestine, aiding Israel

While the Turkish president loudly praises the Palestinian resistance, he is quietly and ferociously pursuing pro-Israel economic and energy policies.

Reviving ISIS: A US weapon against the Resistance Axis

Is it a coincidence that the world's foremost terror organization is being revived just as the US struggles under a multi-front assault on its hegemony in West Asia? More curiously, both ISIS and Washington's targets are exactly the same.

It really does make you think.

Coup President Dina Boluarte Heckled During Highway Stone-Laying Ceremony

“This unfortunate event endangered the safety of the head of state and this is very serious. With violence, we all lose as a country,” said Otárola on social media, seemingly forgetting the brutal police repression launched directly by Boluarte and her coup security apparatus that killed more than 60 Peruvians in less than 60 days during December 2022-January 2023. This was the first time that Dina Boluarte returned to Ayacucho region since the demonstrations and the police repression that left at least 10 dead in Ayacucho and more than 60 dead throughout the country.

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[–] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (4 children)

https://nitter.net/DrMelOB/status/1750863616507621533

ICJ orders provisional measures against Israel to stop acts of genocide, stop its military committing acts of genocide, prevent & punish acts of incitement to genocide, preserve evidence of genocide, provide aid to Gaza, report to the ICJ on its compliance.

Everything except the call for Israel's military operation to end was granted. This is a huge legal defeat for Israel, their whole case was basically thrown out.

Vote breakdown in the replies below

[–] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago (4 children)

Voting breakdown:

By 15 votes to 2, Israel shall take all measures w/in power to prevent commission of all acts w/in scope of Art.II of the Genocide Convention.

By 15 to 2, Israel shall ensure its military does not commit any of the acts of Art.II of the Genocide Convention. (Both these votes were Sebutinde & Barak against.)

By 16 to 1, Israel shall take acts to prevent incitement to genocide against #Palestinians in # Gaza strip. (Sebutinde against.)

By 16 to 1, Israel shall take measures to ensure urgent humanitarian assistance to address adverse condition in Gaza. (Sebutinde against.)

By 15 to 2, Israel shall take effective measures to prevent destruction & ensure preservation of evidence of crimes under Art.II & III of the Genocide Convention. (Sebutinde & Barak against.)

By 15 to 2, Israel shall submit report to the ICJ on all measures within one month from date of order. (Sebutinde & Barak against.)

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[–] super_mario_69@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

Can some Thing Understander please explain to me how in tf a missile can cost tens of millions of dollars each? I assumed it's because the MIC is so bloated and out of control that contractors can put a nine thousand percent markup on everything just like that because they know that all the governments will hand over a blank check anyway. Or are missiles just that god damn expensive? Is this a Natoid thing or is it the same in China, Iran, Russia etc? Just looking for a bit of clarification so I can be properly equipped to dunk on a lib acquaintance. Thanks, love you

[–] GVAGUY3@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Oh no, I live in the heart of the current Cool Zone

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[–] immuredanchorite@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago (1 children)

One thing that the ICJ ruling (and the subsequent response to it) is making me think about, is the logic of calling for a ceasefire is now beginning to impede on the logical conclusion of the iCJ's ruling. We have heard a refrain for a ceasefire, but if Israel is guilty of committing genocide, then under no pretext should the Palestinian resistance stop fighting, if anything, the moral response would be for other countries to invade or provide material support for the Palestinian resistance and for Israel to unconditionally surrender. Is it still a ceasefire if only one side stops?

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[–] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

Looking at the Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) capabilities for various air forces, and holy crap Europe is in a vulnerable position. The only aircraft in the air forces of European countries that can do SEAD and general electronic warfare(EW) at the same time is the Tornado ECR. Some countries have fighter jets like the F-16 equipped with anti radiation missiles for SEAD, but no electronic warfare capabilities. And their electronic warfare platforms are based off of passenger or cargo aircraft. So only Germany and Italy have a plane with proper SEAD and EW capabilities simultaneously in the Tornado ECR. Germany has 35 of these, and Italy 16. The plan here is clearly to rely on the Americans for this with the EA-18G squadrons, plus hope that the F-35s can do some miracle work with "datalink". That's exactly what the UK are trying to with the F-35B.

To put this into perspective, Australia has better SEAD and EW capabilities than most of the European continent, as Australia has 12 EA-18G aircraft.

Russia has also realised through the Ukraine war how important this is, that's why they plan to manufacture 30 Su-34M/ Su-34 NVO fighter planes, which have both EW and SEAD capabilities. Russia only had 10 of them before the war started, and it's only other proper SEAD and EW fighter plane was the Su-24MP, of which only 10 exist.

China have the J-10D and J-16D variants as the aircraft that can do both SEAD and EW. Heavily investing into this area. They also have multiple aircraft types that can fulfil one of the two roles.

The United States has 85 EA-18G aircraft.

I don't think people realise how important these aircraft are to winning wars and achieving air superiority. It is the backbone of any air operation. The whole reason that non stealth jets from the US and NATO were able to carry out such uncontested aerial bombardments with minimal losses during the Gulf war, the bombing of Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, etc, is due to their SEAD and EW capabilities, which were developed after the massive losses in Vietnam. The only aerial losses that occurred during the bombing of Serbia, happend when the EA-6B jets were grounded due to weather. The EA-6B, now replaced by the EA-18G, is credited for the US and NATO achieving such minimal losses during these operations. Being able to simultaneously jam the enemy early warning radar, and take out any active air defense systems with anti radiation missiles, is an essential capability. It can't be split between two platforms. The fact that only Germany and Italy have this capability in Europe is crazy. If America pulls the plug, most of Europe won't be able to take out peer enemy air defenses. Europe is basically entirely dependent on the USA for this.

[–] PorkrollPosadist@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago (1 children)

These capabilities (targeting / jamming radar + communications) seem primarily suited for offensive operations, but unless there is a direct confrontation between the US / Europe / Russia / China, I don't think they will pay very much dividends. That is, unless the imperial powers are willing to lend their state of the art tech to their proxies - but they are too stingy about this sort of thing. Too worried about espionage, reverse engineering, etc. They'd rather keep this tech in their back pocket while their imperial network crumbles before their eyes. And that is their true weakness. Their industrial base is already crumbling without any adversarial bombing campaign. Their power lies primarily in the financial realm, and this financial power relies on a globe-spanning military industrial supply chain which is only as strong as its weakest link.

[–] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

I mean even if you're on the defense in a war, you have to attack eventually, look at Ukraine's "counter offensive" for an example. Their lack of an air force severely limited it. China is investing heavily in this arena for a reason. Without it, your airforce becomes a paperweight against a peer enemy with solid air defence systems. It's just another example if how Europe is reliant on the USA for everything these days.

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[–] Alaskaball@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago (1 children)

https://archive.is/FnJNp

Some delicious brainworms relating to wunderweapons circlejerking dipshits love to do.

USAF Eagle pilot tells why a gun-only F-15 would win an aerial engagement against a fully armed Su-27 Flanker

Yes you correctly read that. Some dipshit pilot actually thinks he'd totally win a one-on-one battle with a peashooter against someone with fucking missiles.

The F-15 Eagle

The F-15 Eagle is an all-weather fighter designed to gain and maintain air supremacy. As the first US fighter with engine thrust greater than its basic weight, the F-15 can accelerate while in a vertical climb. In fact, the Eagle can climb 50,000 feet in less than 60 seconds.

The relatively low aircraft weight, compared to wing area, made the Eagle not just fast, but also highly maneuverable, creating a near perfect platform for air-to-air combat.

Which is why it got retired in favor of more shit planes.

F-15 Eagle Vs Su-27 Flanker

How would a gun-only F-15C Eagle cope against a fully armed Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker? ‘I’m going to assume the F-15C is gun-only and the [Su-27] Flanker has a combat load-out, perhaps minus a couple missiles he expended BVR. Also, assuming the F-15 has internal and expendable countermeasures onboard, both electronic and IR (perhaps BOL-IR and MJU-10),’ Marcus Cade, former F-15 Eagle pilot with the US Air Force (USAF), explains on Quora.

THATS RIGHT! ANOTHER DOGSHIT OPINION FROM QUORA!

‘The F-15 is in a tough spot, no doubt, and he can’t separate against a Flanker. His only option is to fight until he kills the Flanker or a wingman shows up and saves the day.

YOU JUST READ IT CORRECTLY! NO, AN F-15 EAGLE WOULD FUCKING STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE IF ITS DOWN TO IT'S GUNS AND ITS BEING CHASED BY A JET ARMED TO THE TEETH

‘Step 1 – see that yellow button with the black stripes I’ve circled? It reads “Emer Jett.” The Eagle Driver hits that button. If he’s out of missiles, the pylons and launchers under the wings are just weighing him down and creating drag. The Emer Jett button will blow every cart on the airplane, leaving the mighty-mighty Eagle a lean, clean, gun-killing machine. The Flanker won’t know what hit him: first, he’ll see sh*t falling off the Eagle and wonder if there’s combat damage or an ejection about to happen.

Translation: push button to hopefully make it easier to dodge missiles that are hunting it down faster than it flies.

The F-15 Eagle is NEVER doomed

‘Then, as the Eagle driver defends against IR missiles and min-ranges radar missiles, the Flanker will realize he’s losing the fight. “How is this possible?” he asks himself as he trades in all his smash to pull the Eagle in front of his 3/9 as he attempts one last Archer that the Eagle flares off. And now he’s jinking in front of the best air-to-air gun platform ever fielded, flown by a single-mission pilot who is a PhD at finishing this particular fight.

You can viscerally feel this dude just cranking his hog to this top gun level wet dream he's conjuring up

‘As the 20mm HEI rounds start pounding thru his speed-brake and wreaking carnage inside his jet, it’s up to him. Does he bow to the inevitable and eject, or does he stick it out until the Eagle-driver walks the pipper up to the canopy and watches the RATR pop up just as the plexiglass shatters and the Flanker-driver’s last sight is his heart being blown out of his chest and splattering across the instrument panel (I borrowed that particular visual).

It is literally more likely for the f-15 pilot to shit himself mid-flight than it is for him to score a dog fighter style kill on another jet.

Gun Only F-15 Eagle Vs fully armed Su-27 Flanker

He continues;

Oh no

‘I’ve flown this profile many times. While I was at Langley, each squadron would keep a couple jets “demo clean” to support the demo team during airshow season. The clean jets would be assigned to Red air, since they didn’t have a captive AIM-9 to allow full-up blue-air training. They also had a fuel disadvantage of 4–8K pounds. So, we’d fly the card and give blue-air the training they needed … and be lethal as F if we got in amongst them. More often, we’d die like we were meant to and Blue air would bingo out and RTB.

Screams "millennium challenge" forced handicap to me

‘Then we’d BFM or ACM amongst ourselves, to get some training with any fuel we had left. Trust me, a clean Eagle is enormously more maneuverable than a 1- or 2-bag Eagle, and surprisingly more maneuverable than a jet w/ no external tanks, but pylons and missiles on board. It’s a hot knife thru butter for the few minutes until fuel runs out. I wouldn’t walk into this no-missile scenario willingly … but the Flanker driver would have only a short window to get his kill before he was looking over his shoulder and hoping his life-insurance was paid up.’

From my understanding of aerial combat, actual engagements would always occur miles away, waaaaaayyyyyyyy out of eyesight, with modern "dogfighting" taking place closer but still far away as hell. Not even including the fact you would rarely be flying alone if you're in contested airspace.

F-15 Eagle Vs Su-27: Respecting the Flanker family

Cade concludes;

Please make it stop

‘Don’t mistake confidence for arrogance. Air superiority was my job for quite a while, and I was on the receiving end of the information stream provided by a very well-resourced intelligence community. I understand and respect many threat platforms’ strengths (esp. the Su-27 family), and have been part of a community that worked hard to find and exploit their weaknesses.

Okay dude. Totally not arrogant hasan-ok-dude

‘I have flown the MiG-29, and flown against many modern weapons systems operated by various nations. I’ve seen my team rolled up by MiGs fighting in their own back yard after we made just one or two early mistakes. I’ve debriefed at length (occasionally ad nauseam) to understand why a mission failed, or why we took losses in an otherwise successful mission … and how to do better next time. Arrogant tacticians lose. You can only learn to win by beginning with humility and being open to learning (and re-learning) lessons. The end product of that process may come across as arrogance … but it’s actually a very hard-earned confidence.’

Translation: we've been rolled by our allies who were using older commercial versions of Soviet tech and we think we'd win now after getting our asses kicked.

[–] sisatici@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago

Tbh f15 will retire after f22. Not because it is an awesome plane

[–] BovineUniversity@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago (1 children)

I keep seeing people go on about some recent story of Chinese military corruption, something about missiles filled with water, but never seen anyone provide a source. I'm assuming it's pretty baseless regardless but does anyone have specifics? Is it some 'unnamed intelligence source' or something?

[–] 420stalin69@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago (1 children)

The source that I came across was a former Chinese military officer, Lt. Col. Yao Cheng, who fled China in 2016 after several of his colleagues were arrested on corruption charges and who now works for the cia as a writer for radio free Asia.

[–] Tunnelvision@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

So you’re saying he might not be forward with the truth? Shocking.

[–] voight@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (3 children)
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[–] SeekTheDeletion@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Comrades in Portland pressured the city council to sign a ceasefire resolution, and when they were ignored they shut down the meeting via disruption

Several Palestinian activists spoke via the council process and were ignored by all of the committee, not one word of response. Then some rando complained about bike lanes and the council pivoted to that and the spokesperson started ranting about bike lanes too. This was when the meeting was shut down by the protesters who shouted for ceasefire until everyone left and the meeting was ended.

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[–] ThomasMuentzner@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago (1 children)
[–] italktothewind@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago (1 children)
[–] The_One_Who_Knocks@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago (1 children)

the US might be pulling out of Syria

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[–] Frogmanfromlake@hexbear.net 0 points 2 years ago

Sometimes I'll come across old journal entries and remember how much of a right-wing nationalist I was. There are several entries in older journals from 15 years ago where I rant against illegal immigrants as subhuman trash. Even got my first weapon to shoot at them after they continuously stole my crops during a drought and left me food insecure.

It took getting exposed to more leftism and working more with them as opposed to against them for my mind to change.

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