Apologies for the late thread. Mondays, am I right?
dear god we live in unending hell and only a century of humiliation on the imperial core will begin the process of reparations
Apologies for the late thread. Mondays, am I right?
dear god we live in unending hell and only a century of humiliation on the imperial core will begin the process of reparations
Etsy Archipelago
And I'd really like to hear how the Israelis successfully bombed knowledge.
The Israeli special operation to use the Men In Black memory-wiping device to make every nuclear scientist in Iran forget how nuclear physics works
Yeah, without any tangible evidence of said "commando operations" this just feels like cope. We all saw how commandos worked out in Gaza and they got their shit kicked in. I have a hard time believing that they did some James Bond-esque infiltration of Iranian nuclear sites and primed every centrifuge to self-destruct or whatever they could possibly be talking about.
Against surface facilities there were some successful covert operations in the past I believe, but now that everything important is underground, I can't imagine there's much you could even do. That's why Israel and the US had to attempt this in the first place: the era of doing stuxnet shit and slamming drones into surface facilities was over, and a more dangerous military campaign was required with gigantic bombs to even try and breach them. If Israel could have achieved lasting damage to Iran with just covert commando operations then they would have just done that, no need to start a war and attempt forceful strikes on nuclear facilities.
Hebrew media has released new details on the resistance ambush against Israeli forces in south Gaza’s Khan Yunis, in which seven soldiers were burned alive in their troop carrier following an explosive attack claimed by Hamas’s armed wing.
“At exactly 5:30 pm yesterday, the first report came in about a fire breaking out in an armored personnel carrier (APC) of the POM type, belonging to the engineering forces. Initial investigations suggest that a militant approached the APC and attached an explosive device to it. The device detonated, causing the entire vehicle to catch fire,” Israeli journalist and army radio correspondent Doron Kadosh reported on 25 June.
“Military firefighting teams rushed to the scene to extinguish the fire in the APC. A D-9 bulldozer was brought in and dumped sand onto the vehicle in an attempt to smother the flames, but all firefighting efforts failed,” Kadosh added.
After failing to extinguish the flames, rescue forces towed the military vehicle to Israeli territory as it was still on fire with the soldiers inside.
“The fire was only extinguished once the vehicle had reached Israeli territory. Rescue teams and helicopters were dispatched to the scene, but none of the fighters survived. No one remained to be rescued from the wreckage. All seven soldiers were killed.”
Kadosh went on to say that it took several hours to identify the bodies of the seven Israeli soldiers.
Couldn't have happened to nicer people.
I have added a point of clarification there, thank you.
Overall I think Simplicius has been considerably worse on this conflict compared to Russia-Ukraine, it seems out of his area of expertise, but still more worth listening to than like 95% of twitter western military analysts or random OSINT guys. Or, god help you, the media dipshits on TV.
I don't think it's entirely his fault as this really is just a very different war to the Ukraine one, and I think you need a more comprehensive analysis of the political situations of each actor in the conflict (and politics is where Simplicius nosedives into downright incompetency) whereas for Russia/Ukraine you really can just sit on your armchair and move toy soldiers around on a map on your big table and treat it as a mathematical and logistical exercise and still be mostly correct in your conclusions.
more like the Israeli Atomic Espionage Agency, am I right
The latest Simplicius: Humiliation: Israel Tucks Tail After Failing All Objectives in War against Victorious Iran
I think the title's blatant triumphalism betrays how there's a battle in the media over the portrayal of the conflict, with both sides basically doing their own victory dances. I will say that the Israeli side does look a little depressed as the fragility of their society and economy and military has been laid bare, and there does appear to be a psychological blow to Zionists that may or may not translate into lasting change (e.g. mass evacuations). But like, you shouldn't have to constantly insist that you've won a conflict; the results should speak for themselves beyond all doubt. So I'm personally comfortable calling this a draw, but let's see what Simplicius has to say about it.
Ideally there would be a synthesis of the hardliner approach to Israel and the West but the reformist approach to social issues, plus a willingness for, if not outright socialism (given Iran's anti-communist history that seems totally implausible in the short-term) then at least a strengthened capitalist-based command economy. The reformists will destroy Iran by not sufficiently opposing Israel, while the hardliners will destroy Iran by being too repressive internally on issues that simply don't need to be repressed even under an Israeli siege and propaganda warfare situation. But of course, it's not as if the government merely dictates these opinions from on high, there must be many factions based on social and economic classes pulling one way or another, so even a hypothetical coup by a hypothetical "synthesis party" wouldn't ameliorate the contradictions in the short term.
If the war continues then Iran might - might - manage to win anyway, but I'm really getting the impression that in Iran, the left arm doesn't know what the right arm is doing. This goes beyond the standard messaging issues where you promise some overwhelming once-in-a-century response and then little happens; even Pezeshkian himself admitted a while ago that he doesn't always know what's going on.
"the Chinese Communist Party are traitors, only Shia theocracy has the will to do what is necessary"
The argument was that Iran was the only country with the ability to defeat Israel, and such a defeat would be very beneficial not only in a humanitarian sense but also in the geopolitical strategic sense of reducing American influence in the Middle East, and so China should do anything they possibly could to help Iran achieve it. But now I know that it wasn't China's fault for not trying to help, but Iran's fault for not accepting any. On October 8th 2023 at the absolute latest they should have knocked on the doors of Russia and China and gone "We think it's possible that Israel will go berserk and start a regional war and that will include us, we want to sign economic deals, we want to sign military deals. If you can't do much officially due to the sanctions regime then we'll accept covert help, plus we'll be gearing up our nation for this eventuality and doing intelligence sweeps and dragnets that we should have done earlier and at a greater intensity when Soleimani was assassinated, plus getting reforms ready" but because of the internal contradictions of the Iranian political class, I suppose that just wasn't possible. They just didn't have the existential sense of urgency required until it was too late and Hezbollah was pacified. I remember Iran going around talking to the leaders of Gulf states trying to get an embargo on Israel early on but that was pointless, they would have never broke off trade with Israel.
Ironically now, the Middle East might be the strongest holdout of the US going forward. I expected that the approximate series of American imperial collapse would be Middle East -> Africa -> Asia -> Europe -> South America but maybe Israel will still be putting people in concentration camps well past the mid-century. With the benefit of hindsight, that the US would spend inordinate effort to protect the world's oil supply was predictable, but the Resistance was just much stronger back in late 2023 and we weren't aware that their efforts would be squandered due to an ineffective and infiltrated Iranian leadership, so Israel's defeat in the short term seemed plausible even if a little unlikely.
I'm envisioning something like what the UK went through after their empire fell post-WW2, but it'll be much worse because the UK could still rely to an extent on the new American system of neocolonialism enforced by the IMF and World Bank etc, whereas a shift to Chinese hegemony would, unless the Communist Party is liberalized, meaningfully reduce and eventually end imperialist structures.
Unfortunately, the ruling classes of the imperial core will use the working class as human shields and pass on as much misery to them as possible (like Thatcher and Reagan but much worse), so I agree with others who conclude that our job is to try and construct community structures to survive this process, even if we fail to create socialist revolutions (and we might not fail!)