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With Russia's missile strike last night involving an ICBM or IRBM with a conventional payload, there has been a lot of talk about the potential nuclear threat or nuclear capabilities. Which is valid of course, such weapons usually carry nuclear warheads.

However, I managed to find this interesting quote from 2012 from Sergey Karakaev, commander of the Russian strategic missile forces, on the development and construction of Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) or Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) weapons. Such weapons are intended to deliver a precision guided conventional weapons strike anywhere on the globe, within an hour from launch. It is a capability that the US in particular has been pursuing since the Bush Jr administration, first looking to convert a Trident SLBM to a conventional payload, and then on the development of hypersonic weapons. This caused tensions between Obama and Putin in 2013. Anyways, here is the quote from Sergey Karakaev from 2012.

In addition, according to Sergey Karakaev, commander of Russia's Strategic Missile Forces, a liquid fuelled rocket, with its greater payload potential, will allow Russia "to realize such opportunities as the creation of high precision strategic weapons with non-nuclear warheads and a practically global range".

Russia can create non-nuclear, high precision weapons based on intercontinental rockets in the event that the USA also works on designing such a weapon", Karakaev points out.

• Source - Space Daily, 31 December 2012

It seems as if Russia has demonstrated this capability. This existence and deployment of this potential CPS system by Russia changes a lot of calculations around escalation in a potential NATO - Russia conflict.

From videos and pictures of the strike, which I'll post below in a spoiler tag, we can see six seperate re-entries into the earth's atmosphere, and each re-entry contains multiple submunitions, based on screenshots of the video, about six submunitions per re-entry event. So six re-entries with 6 submunitions each, for 36 hits total. That's quite a payload if it came from one missile. If being the keyword.

Yeah if these were nuclear armed instead, we might not even be speaking today...

I'd say it's a message to NATO. Even in it's conventional form here, Russia demonstrated a weapon with accurate MRV and/or cluster warheads capable of hitting NATO assets, like airfields, without any chance of interception.

russian guidance for icbm so shit they missed kiev by 1000 kms.

Lol. But last night the Kh-101 cruise missiles did a weird flight path, they flew to Kyiv, did a u turn there, and hit their targets in the East. Combined with the ICBM/IRBM launch against Dnipro with 6 Multiple Re-entry Vehicles per strike, it seems that a clear message is being sent.

I have multiple, I'll put the links up now.

An ICBM with inert or conventional warheads was also used...

Video evidence of the blasts in Dnipro appears to show that. Multiple MIRVs/MRVs or HGVs impacting at incredible speeds, Mach 20+.

Video 1, alternative xcancel link

Video 2, alternative xcancel link

Video 3 alternative xcancel link

Video 4 alternative xcancel link

Video 5 on Reddit

Ballistic missiles (Iskanders and Kinzhals) are being used freely to suppress and destroy Ukraine's air defenses, keeping the way clear at all times in case more cruise missiles need to be launched, which will target the power grid.

This just happened, double Kinzhal strike followed by Kh-101 cruise missiles.

According to pro Ukrainian sources, Russian Kh-101 cruise missiles are currently over Ukrainian airspace, after Tu-95 strategic bombers carried out launching manouvers. There was a simulation of these launches earlier today. Russian strategic bomber aircraft are also operating in unusual ways, taking off, launching and landing from never before used airbases and launch locations.

Yeah another simulated launch. But this tension is getting genuinely serious and scary now.

Four to seven Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers have conducted launch manouvers for long range cruise missiles, according to Russian aligned sources on telegram. No Tu-160s this time, unlike the last attack on November 17th. That's anywhere from 16-56 cruise missiles depending on how many bombers launched, and how many missiles each were carrying.

Ukraine also launched two suspected Storm Shadow missiles at a port in Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai, which were intercepted according to Rybar, and disappeared from radar according to Ukrainian sources.

I count between 11-13 missile fly bys in the above video, though I don't know how many were impacts or decoys.