Funny to remember how widespread making fun of the "Soviet Gerontocracy" was in the 70s and 80s in western media and politics. This is so so so much worse. Suslov, Brezhnev and Chernenko at their worst and most decrepit state were monsters of vitality and intellect compared to what we are seeing from Amerikkka these days.
You can put renal failure induced encephalopathy Andropov on the debate stage 5 minutes before he died and Biden would still seem barely sentient comperatively
"dont let history repeat itself"
Bruh you are 500 miles off of China and they havent colonized you once in 3000 years. Meanwhile you got got multiple times by western colonial empires from the otherside of the globe. The only history repeating itself is yall being colonized by the US, this time willingly
Vietnam is in a difficult position and is dependent on good economic relations with the imperial core
Eh i dont think thats an excuse tbh. Bunch of SEA nations, especially with large muslim minorities or majorities have at the very least taken a stong and loud pro-palestinian stance, even if its surface level and trade continues to go as is. Yeah they got some pressure from the west but nothing too dangerous. Vietnam could afford to have a better position on the issue than it does, comfortably. Cutting back from their way to extensive military cooparation and trade with Israel for example that even in nominal figures is one of the most extensive globably. Lib countries have done so , even performatively.
The real issue is ,and it often goes unnoticed, that Vietnam got into the capitalist,pro west and liberal brainrot comfortably more so than China during their oppening up, and hasnt really had a "course correction" like the Xi era has been for China. Of course they had huge issues to content and very hostile conditions after the Vietnam war but the current situation is what it is. Its seems weird but at the street level as well as in various official circles there is less pronounced distaste towards the western led neoliberal world order then in most of their non socialist neighbours. Free market good, foreign investment good , bamboo diplomacy good has been drilled a little to deep in most political and public life even if it started as pragmatic and controled choices by the communist party and it basicaly has put dogmatic blinders of the wrong ideology in a lot of their decision making . China had and still has this problem as well. Even the changes under Xi and the new cold war still havent managed to shake it off in a satisfactory degree. Regarding Israel there is a prominent view in liberal and west friendly market loving circles, that arent an unimportant force in Vietnamese politics and party, that its a enterprenaur nation that knows to get rich and technologicaly advanced and strong despite their size so there is a dumbass soft-admiration towards it
To end on a positive note tho, last i heard there has been an ongoing power stuggle inside the party and the less american/liberal friendly wing has been coming out on top and cleaning house. It wont cause some noticable shift, at least not one that they wanna show since America already is buying that Vietnam is an ally or whatever but it seems like there wont be a rightwing, neoliberal slide for the next decade at least there and there probably be more China intergration
This is somewhat reddit analysis since in the scenario of US-China conflict starting with a Chinese kinetic action or blockade of Taiwan any US initiated disruption or blockade of ship routes from and towards China serious enough to hurt China enough to "back off" will have already completely collapsed the economies and even societies of Japan, Worst Korea and Phillipines (allies whose assistance let alone normal function the US counts on to be able to do any kind of successull defense of Taiwan), those of most of the "non-aligned" SEA countries and of course Taiwan. Not in a "recession" or "inflation" sense. If the US is able to mount any such successfull sea route choking to have China in crisis within idk 1 month ,most of the countries i mentioned will be imploding within 1-2 weeks. There is no way of doing one without doing the other and at that point you have lost both Taiwan and the entire region.
There is a reason practicaly no US military think tank, war game or DoD analysis seriously considers SEA sea trade route blockading and disruption a strategy US is remotely likely to try. If it was a viable approach to "win the engagement" both sides would know it and it wouldnt be any kind of a secret, you would see it being seriously discussed and analyses by credible sources and people, not on YT videos and r/Noncredible defense
Of course China wants to expand its inland routes and of course it wants to maximize its degree self sufficiency in energy , calories etc. In part because of course sea routes will be disrupted in any Taiwan related US-China conflict even if the US takes no action on that front. But it being used as a strategy by the US and being credibly able to hurt China both enough and quickly enough to cause a defeat before other factors do and without it fucking up every single ally and non ally in the erea first to a degree that will mean the US loses the region anyways
If anything Ansarallah forcing the last line of missile and air defence used by US ships and managing at least a near hit or scare on USS Eisenhower with the 2nd tier Iranian missiles shows that in any hot conflict in SCS there would be 4 US carriers and 15 Destroyers in the bottom of the ocean by the time the first Chinese person goes hungry or without heating due to US initiated sea route disruption
probably yeah, and tbf other than those issues i mentioned they are more so 70% good -30% bad in most other stuff from an orthodox Marxist-Lenninist perspective.
On foreign policy matters idk if much shift may happen but it doesnt matter that much. They are still way more anti-Nato than anything else despite their "China and Russia secondary imperialist powers" positions. I have been personaly been told by one the highest ranking party member in foreign relations matters that "yeah of course we will be expanding cooperation with China, Iran ,Russia etc if the party comes to power or win elections and likely preemptively expand party ties with the CPC before that. If they are still chill with us after we Nationalize most of the stuff Chinese multinationals own in Greece that is. Cause from the other side we can only expect a sanctions regime"
On LGBT issues for example a big factor imo was that the party for decades had a much stronger support and membership in older age groups and in ereas outside the biggest 1-2 urban centers (Athens and Thessaloniki). So there wasnt some upwards pressure from inside the org and voter base to "modernize" in those fronts. But their youth league and support has been marketably on the rise in the last couple of years and they are seeing their best electoral gains nationaly in Athens. There will most likely be some incremental change towards better positions going forward instead of a massive shift or realization of "oh we were wrong sorry" and that has already happened in the discorse and analysis within the party compared to lets say 5 years ago. Thats why their positions are so confused and all over the place at the momment. Progressive gender analysis and positions coexist and are expressed together with more conservative understandings that are sadly also boosted by a "reactionary" opposition to US rainbow imperialism and by the trends in capital and neoliberalism subsuming a lot of the LGBT messaging and movement. Those contradiction has led to the party not voting in favor of the Right Wings government's gay marriage and adoption bills,but mostly focusing on their opposition to certain parts of the bill from a socioeconomic PoV that has merrit but in no way excuses not supporting those bills. Stuff like their opposition to the existance and expansion of surrogate motherhood under capitalism , their opposition to economic and social benifits for Gays (as well as straights ) being tied to marriage to begin with. So they can in the same time be for stronger anti-discrimination laws against LGBT people , free trans healthcare etc etc but also force themselves to take nitpicky and incoherent positions on Gay Adoption or Marriage but not necessarily outwardly homophobic ones
Greek results for the Euro-elections are both more of the same and somewhat unique.
On the communist side (there actualy being one is already somewhat unique) KKE ,love it or hate it (or more likely be somewhere in between), continued their steady rise hitting 9.3% (vs 7.5% in the parliamentary/presidential elections) last year and basicaly double the ~5% that they were stuck at over last decade. Yeah they arent on the forefront on LGBT issues to say it lightly (tho still not to be lumped with patsocs culture warriorism, spewing hate or Russian communist party levels of social conservativism) and yeah they weirdly have almost leftcom/maoist positions regarding the Russia-Ukraine war and China. But they have survived the waves of eurocommunism, opportunism,reformism, gladio and anti-communism that have swept through the European communist and socialist scene in the last 50 years and stand today, despite their issues, as arguably the most popular and active hardline ML party in "western democracies".
On the "center-left" /socdem side more of the same. Syriza after having eaten shit and imploded in the last 1-2 years continues to stay in useless territory and got ~15%. Tsipras resigned last year and then they literaly imported some better looking Pete Buttigieg - Beto O'Rourke dude from the US but with worse politics (reaganite, campaigned for Biden in 2008) and made him the leader. Like look at this . That caused some demsocs to split and form a new party "New Left" that got 2% or smth. PASOK continues to do nothing after being Pasokified and sits at like 11-12%. Sad to see since they had a kinda cool socdem regime aura in the 70s and 80s. Varoufakis continues enjoying his internationalist demsoc larp party at ~2.5% outside of parliament.I dont hate him or anything but like 90% of Greece does ,mostly unfairly tbh, but good luck with that.
Reminder that Greece also has an active and well organized anarchist and communist sphere outside of KKE and KKE aligned orgs and unions that doesnt care or doesnt do much in elections either but is also a factor in the relative balance of politics
On the far right there has been some rise but im convinced its much less so overall compared to most of Europe. The voter/supporter pool for far right, hard-nationalist/conservative parties has been at 15-20% for a decade now. Its just that there hasnt been a unified movement or party to exploit that and coalesce that support around them and even break through. Far right is actualy quite fractured in Greece with multiple ultra orthodox, alt right grifters or neonazi parties capturing 1-5% of the votes each and the rulling New Democracy party (not Maoist sadly, 80% Macron - 20% Le Pen) also capturing some % of the fascist base. And they cant as of now act together or have coherent plans and coalitions. In these elections a far right party Greek Solution (that despite its name isnt really commited golden dawn ultra-nazi as much as grifter-orthodox fascists) did managed to rise at 9.3% , matching KKE, but i believe its mostly due to circumstance. They were at 4.5% in last years elections and another fascist party that got 4.5% as well was banned from running now because of connections/being a continuation to Golden Dawn. So they got a bunch of those votes and some ultra nationalists moved from New Democracy to them as well. Overall i still see it as yet another reconfiguration of the existing far right base that just moves to and from different parties as if they are communicating vessells for the better part of a decade now and especially after golden dawn's ban. For example a completely evangelical tier orthodox brainworms party also got 3% and some alt right grifter chick run on incel stuff and being somewhat hot and also got 3%. These parties wont exist in 5 years time and others will have taken their place. Lastly i have to note that in the north part of Greece , Macedonia etc, far right is seeing a surge and the communist party despite also gaining, is being left behind. Thats mostly a function of the whole North Macedonia name debacle that has left many, many Greek nationalists there absolutely seething and maybe something of a movement may be forming.
Lastly the rulling party , New Democracy, got ~29%. A notable drop from last years elections where it dominated with 40%. A lot of their base probably didnt care ,they are increasingly unpopular for sure and also like i said some of their far right and nationalist base moved towards smaller more hard line far right parties in this occassion since to protest against some of the Ukraine war support, Macedonia name stuff and Turkey dialogue stuff . They'll prbably be back tho
Look I dont actuay think your analysis and fears are unfounded and not of central geopolitical importance despite having argued against some before. Here I just made a throaway joke cause i found it ammusing that you managed to recenter the whole pipeline stalling negotiation thing posted above into "an example of the failure of dedolarization" rant. And to bring the focus in what i think are the actual most likely deals and calculations behind this whole thing
Ignoring the freaking out over the dollar hegemony Kaplya thankfully brings to every post this seems like a simple calculation for China: By the time this pipeline is fully opperational China plans and most likely will be so deep and ahead in renewables and scaled up energy storage that NG needs will be limited and mostly for heating, power peaking and covered by even current ammounts of NG imports. With this they will have to commit to huge amounts of imports till 2050 , less diversified country and source wise than now and with pipeline that can easily become a target for foreign sabotage in many scenarios. Also we dont even know how the Ukrainian war will end so the exact state of Russia and global and regional geopolitics post Ukranian war are a huge variable that China would like to be more certain about before starting a project like this that will end surely after said war and conflict
Tbf this is an 2008 report. Most of this may have been true or remain true in some capacity but 16 years are a lot for a movement and country, enough for things to take turns for the worse,public attitudes and priorities to shift, successes to be replaced and overshadowed by failures or absence. Not a great analogy but even the Shinning Path at some point enjoyed relativelywide public support and successfuly organized for the betterment of local and overlooked communities all over Peru
If the US stayed out of it Taiwan would surrender within a month of tight-ish embargo at the very best. Most liberal and independance hardliners would flee to the west, maybe hundreds of thousands but Taiwan would simply become a pre 2018 Hong Kong 1 country two systems situation for decades to come with maybe some protests here and there. They isnt the stomach for a Ukraine like resistance in Taiwan, no rabid ideological and ethnic hatred in most of the military and politics . Taiwanese wont do guirella fighting against China or anything of the short, thats a funny and silly idea
Chinese state taking a larger and larger role in the housing sector and various public affortable housing initiatives in various levels and models have been openly and officialy stated by the CPC as actions to be taken going forward. Most western coverages even of sales like the one we are talking about specificaly mention them being part of those policies
This has strong Kaplya energy word to word tho they are @droplet now and your account is older. weird
Either way, how do Chinese households borrow to consume if both their savings growth, their income growth and the consumption growth have been comfortably and sustainably larger than HH debt growth? HH debt can also be a bunch of things not related to most aspects of consumption so unless we have some ready to go data we cant know where that debt went and its a huge leap to call China's consumption growth "debt fueled". Like HH have to borrow to be able consume but also HH savings are at the same time growing faster and higher than HH debt ? They get in debt to be able to sustain their consumption but also they are able save up more than the debt they get into ? Doesnt pass the smell test.
Also the aggregated debt figure compared nominaly against the GDP may tell us absolutely nothing about how distressed the average household balance sheet is given the income and regional inequalities in China in the last decade and the economic activity of different groups. Its much more likely that upper middle housholds and individuals leveraged too much on the property market and speculation (irregardless of their returns) and on the average household level i would imagine most debt figures have accumulated from the explosion of car purchases and payments that foundementaly add a bunch to HH debt calculation no matter how healthy peoples balance sheet is. So Its less of an issue if HH debt going up mostly as a function of mortgage penetration for higher income earners but not coming at the expense of savings or consumption (but also not financing those things) for the average houshold.
Also as far as the real estate sector bubble popping/delevareging goes that is already a reality for almost 3 years now. Sector has already dropped as a % of gdp by a notable margin, prices depending on city tier have droped from somewhat to a bunch . If that was to have any major impact on HH consumption we would have seen it by now. But HH consumption numbers follow the same trend and growth regardless. Connected to that is the fact that , yeah many people invested on real estate beyond buying their first house, but many for China is still a small minority of the population and concentrated in urban upper-middle class people. But how many Chinese people do you actualy think have invested in real estate and/or stocks? 30 million ? How many people borrowed to invest even , which is something you throw out with such certainty ? Many can be 4 million but are you sure thats an impactfull sum for China?
Ok lets imagine that. These 30 million people do contribute a lot in chinese consumption since they they make up a large chunk of upper middle class people like i said. And their grivances get disproportionate coverage both inside and outside of China. But the future of chinese society and economy isnt for them. Its for the 300 million class people moving up the ladder to a middle class lifestyle. The vast majority of these people didnt speculate on real estate or stocks and the deleveraging of the property sector not only doesnt hurt them but it actualy opens up the road for more affordable housing and as a result more disposable income for consumption. And thats what we have been seeing. From income to consumption to savings the YoY growth for that bracket has outpaced both GDP growth and that of upper-middle class chinese. Chinese govt does not in fact consider the pains of people who’ve already made enough money to gamble on stocks or speculate on real estate beyond owning the house they reside in as determinal to the engeneering of a future economy more fair and benifiting for the much larger working class people in lower economic brackets.