I agree regarding the lack of trade embargo and economic coercion against israel despite having written before how i think it would end up symbolic and not stop the genocide, they should still have done it. Imperialism has been in their borders for half a century in pretty much the same capacity it is now. The only thing that changed is that the balance of hard power now favors China for the first time and will increasingly do so with each passing year. SOft power as well but thats another talk. China knows where imperilism is and is coming from and has made the necessary decisions and has built the hard power to kick its ass when it finaly attacks in desperation. Iran should have done the same with similar urgency and focus. And thats the only thing that matters, cause china is simply too big to be salami sliced, contained, embargoed or stopped by all these ohh so smart economical and geopolitical games. The US could put a comprador regime next to them and that regime will still be forced to continue the same amount of trade and relations with China because their entire economy and state couldnt function otherwise. It is and will become increasingly clear that Imperialism could only hope to actualy achieve its objectives regarding China by an an actual desperation war with not great chances for them and at the same time thats its the only way for imperialism to be kicked away from its borders, where it has been as i said for most of its modern history. Either imperialism will chicken out out given it will probably lose, try and nuke the plannet, try without nuking the plannet and probably losing with a slim chance of success. Whether some reformist becomes leader of Iran and now China only gets the oil it increasingly needs less off without discount and no massive economic cooperation happens with Iran (which the current regime also has been dragging its feet ) doesnt move the needly remotely enough to matter for an actual conflict between China and "the imperialism in its borders"
geikei
Given Iran track record and urgency in cultivating close alliances and contigencies with Russia or China why are you sure Iran was in Russia begging for Russian intervention and help en mass. Iran for a decade never made any decisive move to chase any military alliance with Russia because they were a big boy regional power that knew what they were doing and dont need to be under the influence and protection of bigger powers (while also keeping one eye looking west). They werent and arent Ukraine and Zelenskied begging for help and giving up anything they can to invite foreign tripwire forces and presence in their country. Even they they should have been honestly. At best they tried to get like 12 jets from Russia one year into the ukrainian war and 5 years too late investing a fraction of what they threw into the fire to keep dumbass Assad in power
If this community actualy thought that China's only chance of saving themselves from western domination is becoming an active party in the Iran-Israel-US war (spoiler alert, Iran didnt even ask them to or ever did anything to create that contigency) then maybe we shouldnt get our money up, we dont deserve any Ws associated with us and should instead focus on groupwatches of China clickbait youtube videos and group reads of non communist geopolitical expert subtracks with readership of 500 people. Because apparently thats the level of understanding of China, the world economy and relevant trajectories we are capable of
idk, i feel that Iran's long term survival and success hinges on either getting a nuke and/or building a conventional modern airforce and air defense systems at scale (by approaching China and Russia with the desperation their position dictates and doing and giving up everything they can to get whatever they can from them, something that they havent remotely done by now) for Israel and the US being unable to do what they have been doing. Also purge a lot of people. Yeah they probably shouldnt accept any loopsided ceasefire right now but at some point they will have to even if it still isnt in their favor and create a relatively stable enviroment to chase the above goals without israeli airplanes and mossad agents strolling around above and on the ground.
Ukraine was doing everything they could to become a western client state and get into every western alliance and militray program they could. It was and is on its knees constantly begging for air defenses and alliences and a billion US troops on its ground. It had a hundreds of soviet Air defense systems already and it was training and intergrating with western systems for a decade. What has Iran actualy done regarding its relations and approachment with China.
There have been a bunch of comments showing how it was dragging its feet in closer military and economic ties with China, due to the reformists looking with one eye west yes but also because they didnt want to be under Russian or Chinese influence and a junior partner to such a relation. Its a big boy country that made its own choices and other powers will act also based on Iranian willingness, actions and what it asks for, what it accepts and has to offer. I made a longer comment here https://hexbear.net/comment/6248893 .
Beyond that and as far as military supplies go, its a question of what systems and how and if they can even be used. China running in to now give modern air defenses and aircrafts is unrealistic for multiple reasons. They would be useless to iranians without extensive months long training and a complicated intergrated ecosystem they operate under. Also with the degree of mossad penetration and Israel depth of opperations and the US joining in the chances these would fall into their hands are pretty high and at this stage of the game its something China wouldnt want. Giving Iran long range rockets and missiles (also launchers cause other wise its useless) isnt impossible but China's rocket force is one of its greatest focuses given their needs and Taiwan and US placement in the pacific. Giving them in any large scale to Iran would have an impact in their magazine. Also they dont wanna speed up a Taiwan crisis by making sure US goes unhinged in the equipment and military stuff they send to Taiwan, where the US is still afraid to do any big moves. Drones, drone parts, electronics and material to build weapons are already sourced from China by iran in a large degree and we have no idea if they are picking up and it wouldnt be surprising if they are. Normal Ground war millitary stuff Iran doesnt even need as of now and if they do we will see if and what they source from China.
You are correct but there have to be other historical, geographic and even cultural factors taken into account if one is to explian how vassals of similar economic scale and size like Canada, UK or Germany , that on paper should actually have more independent power and policy making vs the US relative to Japan, seem more willing to eat shit and die on America's directive.
Japan's proximity to the emerging dominant superpower in China and their much greater economic entaglement. A collective trauma from the plaza accords informing theor strategy now. A historicaly more nationalist and sovereign minded view of themselves and cultural attitude. The actual total war and surrender they "suffered" purely in the hand sof the US and the following occupation. Maybe the fact that they werent the ground zero nearly as much gladio and CIA activity compared to some European countries for most of the post war period. Maybe with the LDP being a one party state and the constitution being US written their political development in recent decades saw less of an industry of US led think tank/ngo politician incubation and training. In general the fact that the US is in Asia but isnt of Asia. The region and japan may have a more historicaly continuous collective memory, cultural and ethnic dynamics, national relations, spheres of influence etc etc spanning hundreds if not thousands of years. Being without the US as the major player and hegemonic power isnt something that alien or disqualifyingly uncomfortable
They delivered some but training and networking takes years and russia is kinda doing a thing in Ukraine. If the whole deal showed more urgency pre ukraine war from both sides maybe there could have made a difference
Japan is probably extremely annoyed with the tarrif and trade negotiations and that informs how much they jump on the US train on other matters at the momment. Maybe they are a vassal state but not a VASSAL state and there is some hope for them. Since at least they are showing some stiff resistance to the US saying "blow up your ailing economy and industry completely for america and trump". At least way more than what the germans and british are showed and show
A large chunk of the country containing the most important agricultural and energy rich regions being occupied by US compradors is way beyond "airstrikes" and it is what hampered the Syrian state's ability to adequetly feed and provide modern electricity and heating services to its population year round. Also besides the memes, the Assad "regime" was significantly more corrupt, violent, incompetent and hollowed out compared to the Iranian state. Due to the circumstances and civil war sure, but at the end of the day the way that shaped public opinion and willingeness and capacity to defend it matter
Idk why DJI stock exploding would have much to do with the Israeli wars in the region. The ukraine war by far the place where drones have continuously being proven as the future of walfare, and where most innovation and demand for drone and drone parts comes from regarding military uses. By an order of magnitude. If the rise in stock is for military reasons and demand is way more likely that it follows the trend of proliferation based on the Ukraine war and the subsequent investments and race from all great powers to use those lessons and focus in that production. Compared to that Israeli use and demand for drones is relatively mundane
Iran's "regime" shouldnt have the same level of reorganization capacity, weaknesses and ability and to achieve its needed deterents and sovereignty compared to a paramilitary semi-state bordering Israel. They can and should swiftly achieve enough objectives regarding mossad purging, reformist purging, nuclear reorganization and weaponization and geopolitical manuvering and rearmament given an enviroment without israeli and US planes flying tours over their heads bombing them every 3 hours. If they cant or arent willing to then they are Assaded