this post was submitted on 05 Aug 2024
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Well, Iran and their allies' response may happen sometime this week and apparently they aren't talking to the US in order to negotiate how and where they will hit Israel (and Shoigu arrived in Tehran rather auspiciously), the Bangladeshi government just fell, F16s have been given to Ukraine, there are fascist riots in the UK, and Japan just had its worst stock fall since 1987 and seems to be taking several other countries/corporations with it. I don't really know where to look right now.


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Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

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Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
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Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
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Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] CascadeOfLight@hexbear.net 32 points 3 months ago (3 children)

I'm gonna post it again!

Russia's raid against Kiev was both a low-probability stab at ending the war immediately, as well as a pinning maneuver that held a large Ukrainian force immobilized and covered Russia's two other campaigns in the south and east. If the Russians had expected the Kiev column to work on its own, why would they have bothered with the other two prongs of their attack?

Conversely, if it gives a huge strategic advantage and there's a chance it could end the whole war instantly, why not do it? (In fact, as we now know, if not for Boris Johnson personally visiting Zelensky and swearing that NATO would give everything to ensure a Ukrainian victory, a peace deal would have been signed in April 2022)

This way of thinking betrays an undialectical understanding of why actors act, where they do things for 'a' reason rather than because the set of reasons to do it outweighs the set of reasons not to do it. Then, if the action fails to achieve 'the' reason, it is a failure as a whole: the actor must be foolish or have made a mistake, and any advantage gained was an accident, or it's even asserted that because of the apparent failure they cannot have gained any advantage! Western commentators are unable to go beyond this - frankly, they're unable to grasp that their enemies act for reasons rather than just an innate urge to do evil - but it's useless as a way of analysing the world, especially when it comes to questions such as why the US even started this war in the first place.

I've seen people argue that the US miscalculated, that the war has been a failure because neither the Ukrainian military nor the sanctions have put a dent in Russia's performance, but actually destroying Russia and breaking it open for the neoliberals to feast on was only the most favorable possible outcome.

  • Cutting Europe off from Eurasian economic integration and making them dependent on US gas imports is still a win for the Empire
  • Laundering enormous amounts of money through Ukraine and back into US MIC stocks and (Democrat) politicians' pockets is a win for a subset of high-ranking imperial ghouls
  • Privatizing Ukrainian assets to pay for war debts and seizing control of land and state resources is a win for rentier megacorps like Blackrock
  • Tightening security in the face of an external enemy and dipping their beaks in the pot of US arms spending - even as their real economies die off - is a win for the European suzerains

Even if the capital-R 'Reason' of destroying Russia had only a slim chance of success and, as we can see, has failed, the other reasons to start the war still far outweighed the reasons not to.

[–] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 8 points 3 months ago

This way of thinking betrays an undialectical understanding of why actors act, where they do things for 'a' reason rather than because the set of reasons to do it outweighs the set of reasons not to do it.

Unironically, playing any competitive game at a high level is helpful to internalize this. Chess, poker, many adversarial video games all have this concept in common, where most of the game you are not trying to do the winning move but are trying to narrow down and worsen the enemy's options while improving your own. See also, the concept of positive and negative Expected Value.

[–] shitholeislander@hexbear.net 4 points 3 months ago (1 children)
[–] CascadeOfLight@hexbear.net 5 points 3 months ago

You know you're right, how could I have been fooled by the well known Russian cope-mongers at the Marine Corps Gazette

[–] MrPiss@hexbear.net 3 points 3 months ago

I've seen people argue that the US miscalculated, that the war has been a failure because neither the Ukrainian military nor the sanctions have put a dent in Russia's performance, but actually destroying Russia and breaking it open for the neoliberals to feast on was only the most favorable possible outcome.

I'm at the point where I think US foreign policy is just controlled chaos. I first heard that in reference to Syria years ago but it seems to make sense at large with how many places the US is trying to destabilize at once. If the empire can't have something then it will be burned to ash.