this post was submitted on 22 Sep 2024
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Unfortunately this is where Musk figured out how to corner the market ahead of time. It was the same thing when cellular tech came into the mainstream. Lots of less developed countries with poor or no hardwired telcom infra found that skipping ahead to next-gen tech (cell towers) was super cheap and quick to build, so lots of corners of the earth found themselves connected in the 90's that had never been prior to that decade.
Starlink and low-orbit sats for internet coverage are a similar leap ahead in cost and speed to deploy. Elon and his goons saw it coming long before anyone else did, and the fact they also have Space X was a pretty key part of their speed to deploy.
I'm no Elon stan, I hate the fucking guy. But it is what it is. He got there first and people in northern canada can already access Starlink for under 200/mo. I am no math guy but I suspect that even if the fed gov paid every cent of everyone's subscription to Starlink it wouldn't amount to 2 billion dollars. π€·
EDIT just did some napkin math. With the help of wiki found that the population of northern canada is less than 120k people. So cost of taxpayers footing the bill for everyone up there to be on Starlink would be 24 million/yr. Or... for that same 2 billion, 83 years of Starlink subscriptions for each and every person up there. That would be if each single person had their own dish.
Except that Starlink pricing and throughput is not linear. They're starting to add congestion charges in popular areas, they have no satellites at higher latitudes, and their devices suffer at low temperatures. If you think that Starlink will be able to deliver what Elmo claims, then I have a trip to the Titanic to sell to you.
Again, I'm no Elon stan. You don't have to convince me he's a dbag, and I wish some other competitor would come along with something better. However I've personally used Starlink in sub -30C temps for work, for weeks at a time. The dishes work perfectly fine in cold climates, and they have a self-heating element to de-ice themselves if you enable that feature. I don't know what you're talking about. I do know lots of other people who also rely on it in similar climates.
You can go onto Starlink's coverage map right now and order service to Dawson City Yukon, and anywhere equilateral to that point. There's a pretty big market for it in Alaska, already. The tech does what it says it does, which kinda sucks because I'd rather not put money into his fucking bank account. But yeah. It is what it is.
That's what the government should do then, help create a Canadian competitor... π€·
Not to mention that their napkin math is wrong by a factor of 12
Yeah I got the memo. Disclaimer above that I am not a math guy and shouldn't have ever attempted it. π€·
Telesat is a Canadian company. The benefit extends beyond just the satellite internet service. We get a domestic provider of this service so we donβt have to rely on Elon and his ketamine delusions and ties to Russia. This will also create Canadian jobs and boost our economy.
I just looked into Telesat for the first time, and I'm happy if they actually do anything they say they're gonna. I found that the canadian gov't already injected 1.3bn into them in 2021. Further reading on their own website shows they only have one (1) "demo" sat in LEO launched in 2018, for "testing purposes". So we're now giving them another 2.2bn for what exactly? If this project turns out like some of the other semi-publicly funded or subsidized attempts at connecting northern canada it's never going to happen, or like in the case of XPlore-Net turn out to be the shittiest overpriced attempt at internet providers ever to have existed. Tens of thousands of their customers bought a Starlink as soon as it became available to them, several years ago already.
I've traveled the north and I know a handful of people who grew up there literally on trap lines and in one case a fishing village in the northern section of Nunavut. I really am for everyone in Canada getting online. I'd like to have seen it happen a long time ago. I just don't have a lot of faith in these publicly funded projects given their track record. And to be clear, I loathe the liberals as much as the conservatives, I'm not choosing a political side here. To put this another way, 3.3bn would go a long way towards building out the clean water infra that the gov't has also been promising for decades. idfk call me crazy but there isn't already a successful company going around offering that service for very cheap. Maybe we should be investing in areas where there's not already a solution.
Your Telesat review is very biased. I didn't know who they were until today, but they've been operating geo satellites for 60 years. They also don't manufacture satellites, so their track record will have less bearing on how those satellites are made. Also, it says in the current article that the previous $1.3 billion deal didn't go through. I tried to find more info, but the closest I got was Telesat's press release that mentioned it being subject to various conditions, which may not have been met. That actually increases my confidence, since before they were going to just give them some money if certain conditions were met, and not they're just getting a loan. Now, whether they actually pay it back... I'd be unsurprised to learn that part of their preparation for this was going public in 2021.
I'd be a little concerned about the manufacturer, MDA, who has gone through a number of mergers and spin-offs over the decades. I'm not certain, but it's possible that Telesat and MDA had divisions that were spun off into each other at one point. They could have a strong core, or it could have all been sold off and the key people moved on. The fact they still have the Canadarm team and were selected for the first phase of Canadarm 3 gives a little hope, but has no bearing on their capability to manufacture the satellites needed for this array. That said, they do have some history with the antennas and such required for this project.
In short, neither of the key players in this satellite project are new entries, and in fact have had many successful projects over decades. Hopefully this project takes them to new heights.
Not sure how it's biased, the piece about the 1.3bn was within the first five results that came up when I searched them. To be fair, I didn't dig as deep as you did to find that that deal didn't go through. Thanks for the correction, I didn't know that. The gov-can website itself still has details about the deal, not sure why they wouldn't have removed it if it didn't happen. For context this is the article on canada.ca I was referring to (I wasn't trying to be shady and I don't appreciate being accused of that).
I don't have a horse in this race. I personally don't give a fuck about how the north gets connected per se as long as billions of public money isn't wasted. Again, imo clean water infra is probably a lot more important in the long run for the people in the north considering there is already at least one viable service to connect to the internet with. I can't quite wrap my head around why Telesat hasn't left the "testing phase" in 6+ years. Your added context here makes me even more wary given the details about the company that would actually be manufacturing the LEO sats (and obviously... haven't done so yet. Why is that?).
We all know why canadian cell and internet prices are among the highest in the world. It's because our entire population is less than that which occupies the lower third of california. It costs a lot to build infrastructure to provide comms tech for each person per capita on this scale considering 95+ percent of our population lives along the US border. My point is that Starlink already has the infra in the northern sky, mostly because they have a pretty sizeable market in Alaska and the knock-off effect is there are already LEO sats within range of providing lots of northern canadian residents that same service. The rhetoric about national security is laughable given anyone with a debit card anywhere in the country can already order Starlink and have it delivered within the week. If you're gonna go down that rabbit hole, let's ban it across the country in favor of a domestic solution that might be available in another decade at the current rate of development. While we're at it, let's make it so that those fly-in communities in the north are only allowed to get food and supply deliveries on canadian-made airplanes and boats.
It all starts to break down when you think about it. This isn't a political thing for me, it's practical. I'm not a huge fan of government in any form (read my comment history). But since we're all participating in this fucking shitshow let's look at the facts and spend our collective tax money wisely. If that 2.2bn is actually going to mean most people in the north get cheap or free internet within the next decade I'd love to see it. Meanwhile, unfortunately, Starlink is already in place and working for that purpose. That's just a fact, whether anyone likes Elon Musk or not. I fuckin don't.
I specifically said borderline shady because I didn't think you were trying to be shady. I also tried to find a source for the cancelation of the $1.3 billion, and all I have is the single line in the posted article about it. Not surprising that neither Telesat nor the government are going out of their way to announce the deal fell through, but I'd prefer it if they did, and I imagine you would, too.
The national security angle doesn't mean you can't use foreign services, it means you don't have to use foreign services, especially when you consider a major user will be NORAD bases. This is particularly relevant given the shenanigans Musk has played in Ukraine.
While I think it's easy to argue that internet connectivity is a necessity if you want to participate in the modern world, clearly water is even more important. We have seen decades of neglect on that front.
Well yeah... you wouldn't have to use foreign services if a domestic alternative existed. One doesn't for northern residents, yet. So here we are like many times in the past (like for getting northern people online, or getting them clean water to drink) talking about future, possible, great idea measures that will take place at some point instead of just doing the fucking thing.
I don't love Starlink or Musk. However, I do own a Starlink dish and I have used it for the past couple of years for work. I know lots of other people who live in very remote areas who have been using it since it became available to them. Starlink took off in central and northern areas of Canada very quickly because it was the only (good) option for highspeed internet, and still is. And while it would be dope if a canadian competitor came along and made good on their potential, we're still falling back into the fact that at best a canadian LEO internet company would have to launch their sats in the north for a total of 120k customers. Starlink has the Alaskan market which is upwards of 750k people, already. The canadian customers are just a bonus for them in that region, at that scale.
Why can't we get northern people online now as well as develop a domestic solution? I don't think it's a stretch to say Telesat looks like another XPlore-net type solution (i.e. half-assed, at best, and maybe will never happen at this point). I've worked in tech for 4 years now. Currently for a fully private company, zero public or private/VC funding. But the first company I worked for took an obscene amount of public funding (lockdown subsidies which in fact is how I got hired) and a fuckton of tax breaks before and since. Sadly, they've also done a lot of screaming about the suggestion that they should pay their fair share of corporate tax. Not super relevant to this convo, but I do understand in some ways what's at stake when a company takes public money (and still treats locals like shit). There are lots of examples of this going wrong, so I wouldn't wanna see it be the only option on the table for any reason.
At any rate I think we agree that folks should probably have clean drinking water first anyhow.
Starlink was SpaceXs solution to having a reusable first stage rocket and not enough demand for all the flights they could now do.
They basically poured billions into perfecting reuse, and had to find a way to make money on the new but upfront costly capabilities so they came up with starlink.
Edit: it also gave them a safer way to more easily test flight proven rockets with what was at the time more weary customers of the tech. For awhile NASA still wanted new rockets, but then became fine with flight proven as all the extra flights showed it was okay.
The problem occurs in 2030 when Elon decides that only Russian settlers in the North can get satellite Internet because the Canadians might use it offensively in their war, against Russian settlers in Canada.
This is an interesting scenario with the entire military might of the US sitting in Alaska at this moment literally there to prevent this exact thing from happening. I mean, fun to think about, but not happening any time soon. Especially by the year 2030.
It's really just to illustrate why no one should be trusting Elon. He did that exact thing to Ukraine when they tried to counter attack early on.
This whole thing is infuriating. Musk is demonstrably a risk and this is just more βmore money for youβ vote spraying and fuck the consequences.
I for one am happy to loan the tax dollars to a Canadian company.
Arctic sovereignty not your thing, Pierre?
Part of me wants to write off the Russian settlers comment as mindless FUD. Then I remember that Donald Trump was getting cozy with Putin while throwing tariffs at Canada, pulling out of NATO, and getting upset at the press that Trudeau had a better handshake or that Ivanka was checking him out a dinner parties.
You can never say 100% who your friends will be in the future.
I hope both Russia and Trump suffer horrible defeats this winter. Then I can go back to laughing at how stupid the settlers comment is.
I hope so too. But while I was looking for an analogy with Ukraine I did go with something that's a non zero chance. First as you point out Trump has a history of giving Putin what he wants. While I'm sure the Canadian Army is very capable, I'm also sure the US is a large part of their defense plan. So that's why that matters. Then we have the fact that the Russians will not shut up about wanting to broadly settle the Arctic circle for oil. As pointed out, the US didn't just do a field exercise up there for giggles. They're showing the Russians there wouldn't be a default victory.
The settlers part is just a variation of their normal means of soft power expansion. They offer Russian passports and privileges to people in neighboring countries. No strings attached, all benefits. They do this to try and get pro Russian politicians elected and then they pull out all the stops to keep them in power. But the Arctic Circle and far north is very sparsely populated. So they don't need to convert the population. They just need to move in. The best case scenario for them is getting these areas to a referendum to secede from Greenland/Canada/US.
None of this is possible though without Trump being elected and a snap invasion of the Baltics or a "referendum" in Hungary. (Hungary and Moldova are part of why Putin wanted Ukraine on his side.) Putin needs to see how Trump reacts to a genuine Article 5 call before doing this. Because if Trump does remember he's the American president then it will be a very bad day for the Russians. And I do mean 24 hours.
So nonzero chance. But also the dumbest plausible timeline. It's far more likely Trump just gives Gazprom permission to obliterate the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska in exchange for a sign on a hotel in Moscow. (Not even ownership of the hotel, just putting his name on it)