this post was submitted on 26 Sep 2024
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This jumped out to me as typical of decision making in general. I think of investors as only having two moods "oh I'm an idiot, why did I even waste a cent on that stock? I knew it was cratering." and "oh I'm an idiot, why didn't I take a loan on the house and bet that too? I knew it was going to the moon." There's never a satisfaction or some sort of emotional clicking-into-place that lets you know you chose right of two uncertain calls. If you do get that click DM me, tell me your secrets, and save me from myself.
I remember this audiobook (which, I'm told, probably has a regular book form too) called Algorithms to Live By. It talked about how computer/software engineers need to think about computational limitations where time is finite. There are things like the Secretary Problem and Optimal Stopping Problems. It really stood out to me that, given best strategy, you had a 1/3 chance of actually getting the best secretary (interview -> thumbs up or thumbs down (optionally: -> changing your mind).
I think you made a valid decision insofar that its internal logic was consistent. I have faith you made a grounded decision insofar that you took into account your material conditions. If a choice has both of these, I count it among your rational decisions. I think you simply wait and see whether that glorified rougelike-on-rails we call life gives you good RNG. I think giving into second guessing your decision undermines your ability to make your next rational decision. I don't think you can do much better than following what excites you, making rational decisions, and not attaching your worth to the outcome.
TL;DR: You probably made the right call.