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Ok, so I'm just scrolling through the most recent polls and picking out numbers based on this. I'm just going to grab the most recent numbers from Silver Bulletin. I'll grab the latest, most recent number for a given pollster, Harris & Trump only.
Not red wave: 6
The New York Times/Siena College
Harris/ Trump:
44%/ 49% (but also, I'm not sure whats going on with the repeat entries on this poll...)
InsiderAdvantage
Not in Nate Silvers database, cant find in 538's either, different name?
Emerson College
Harris/ Trump:
50.2%/ 48.6%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO - While Fabrizio is a Red Wave pollster, GBAO is not.
Harris/ Trump:
45%/ 50%
Quinnipiac University
Harris/ Trump:
47%/ 49%
YouGov/Center for Working Class Politics
Harris/ Trump:
51%/ 48%
Just Bad polling: 3
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Harris/ Trump:
46%/ 48%
Research Co.
Harris/ Trump:
49%/ 45%
Hunt research:
47%/ 47%
OnMessage:
Can't find in either database.
Red Wave (2):
TIPP Insights
Harris/ Trump:
48%/ 49%
McLaughlin
Harris/ Trump:
48%/ 49%
Doing the quick stats...
Not Red Wave Polls:
Just Bad Polling:
Red Wave Polls:
The Red Wave polls and the Not Rave polls are in good agreement. These polls are all with each others MOE, and would fail a t-test.
Harris:
Trump:
Both p-values are significantly higher than 0.05, indicating that there is no statistically significant difference between the two groups in terms of Harris and Trump percentages.
The article is wrong. Unless it meant to say that Times/ Sienna is a "Red Wave" pollster, this an article targeted towards Blue MAGA to give them something they want to hear.
[Fuck, I'm annoyed. I did this for national, not PA.]
Annoyed so I just made a generalized analysis for everystate:
Codeshare link: https://codeshare.io/ONzAZ0
PA results:
No significant differences. 95% confidence intervals in the shaded area.