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Trump has taken the lead over Harris for first time in 538 forecast.
(projects.fivethirtyeight.com)
this post was submitted on 19 Oct 2024
12 points (55.3% liked)
politics
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Here is a direct quote from 538:
Source
In 2016 they gave Hillary Clinton a 71.4 % chance of winning, and in 2020 they gave Joe Biden 89 % chance of winning. They are dealing in odds, not calls.
And even if it isn't getting through to you, how were they wrong in 2020?
So based on their record over the past two years, it’s safe to say that whoever they assume to have the best odds of winning- it’s still going to be a whoever wins, wins.
My point is… they’re not accurate.
You just fundamentally do not understand statistics and it’s tiresome
What would accurate odds in the previous two presidential elections look like to you?
Voting is the only accurate means to determine a president. This bullshit with odds and predictions muddies the water.