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Cheney wanted to start a war in the middle east for personal enrichment, and he made that happen. That's a huge deal, especially given he was just VP. Yes, terrible for the country, but really quite an accomplishment. I have seen no evidence that Vance has skills beyond just saying what he thinks people want to hear (regardless of accuracy).
I see what you mean, but I think you're sleeping on how much Vance's personal influence has expanded by becoming a national name and counting some chickens before they hatch. I, for one, don't count him out yet as the potential legal successor to an obese old man with cognitive decline and I don't have enough remaining faith in America to consider making that play a bad one.
Here's hoping I'm wrong, and their side will have lost votes by saying the quiet points out loud, not gained them.
I still think we're taking past each other. I'm not saying he won't become president or whatever. There are other people who have done that without personally being great strategists or especially bright. I think Cheney was a lot smarter than the president he served under. Vance might be smarter than Trump, but I don't think that's saying much.